Nifty Long Term Elliott Wave Analysis
This is monthly chart of Nifty since its inception in 1990. First wave that started in 2002 lasted till 2007, took 5 years to complete followed by one and half or two years for wave 2 to complete and then third and most powerful and longest wave started in 2009 is completed almost in April 2020 followed by a sharp retracement upto approximately 7500 and we are back again at 10400 level. But this is not completion of wave 4. Usually wave 4 is more complex retracement and takes more time to complete than wave 2.
We may assume that there will be more complex retracement in Nifty before it starts its long term fifth wave up and there will be more bloodbath in the market. As wave 2 took almost two years to complete, wave 4 may also take similar time to complete and we may assume that wave 4 will be over by almost June 2022 to Jan-March 2023. And as per Elliott wave theory, Wave 1 and wave 4 do not intersect, we may assume that lowest levels for wave 4 may be between 6300- 7000 levels.
If Nifty rises from here and breaks its previous all time high of 12430, then, this will be considered as continuation of wave 3 and not as wave 4. Till its previous high of 12430 is intact, we can assume that complex retracement of wave 4 has been started and we MUST be ready for more bloodbath in the market in coming days and months.
We may assume that there will be more complex retracement in Nifty before it starts its long term fifth wave up and there will be more bloodbath in the market. As wave 2 took almost two years to complete, wave 4 may also take similar time to complete and we may assume that wave 4 will be over by almost June 2022 to Jan-March 2023. And as per Elliott wave theory, Wave 1 and wave 4 do not intersect, we may assume that lowest levels for wave 4 may be between 6300- 7000 levels.
If Nifty rises from here and breaks its previous all time high of 12430, then, this will be considered as continuation of wave 3 and not as wave 4. Till its previous high of 12430 is intact, we can assume that complex retracement of wave 4 has been started and we MUST be ready for more bloodbath in the market in coming days and months.
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