Data Drievn Analysis of Nifty and Bank Nifty for w/e 24-12-21
DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF NIFTY & BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 24-12-21
This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. I encourage you to view the video as well since not everything can be captured in a document form.
I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week.
Important - Although the markets are very hard to predict in the short term, the main issue presently faced is that even on an intraday basis, the markets have been extremely volatile. This may impact the traders who trade on an intraday basis. If you are one such trader, please be careful and assign top most priority to risk management.
BANK NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364
EOD on 24-12-21 = 34857 up by -1507 points or -4.14% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 35477 on 23-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 34018 on 20-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = 1459 points or 4.29% from the lowest level
In the last one week, Bank Nifty has made a downward move of 761 points or 2.14% which is in continuation of the earlier week’s bearish sign.
NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166
EOD on 24-12-21 = 17003 down by 163 points or 0.95% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 17155.60 on 24-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 16410 on 27-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = 745 points or 4.54% from the lowest level
In the last one week Nifty has made an up move of 18 points or 0.11% which potentially indicates a slowing down of selling pressure.
FII - DII DATA:
DEC 2021
FIIs = -33,271 Crores
DIIs = 26.405 Crores
Net is = -6,866 Crores
There has been a slow down in the severity of selling by FII which may be attributable to the year end holidays and or a potential shift in their strategy. Only time will tell us what is the truth.
Conclusion:
On 24-12, FIIs have turned net sellers though by a mere 44 Crores. This is an unusual sight.
When FIIs turn net sellers generally DIIs keep buying and when DIIs turn net sellers, FIIs buy. This has been the approach - the key point is whether this is likely to happen or DIIs may also join hands in the sell-off.
SGX Nifty is as of the end of the week indicating a flat close and the UIS markets would open only on 27-12 after 24-12 holiday so the true feel of the sentiment would be known only on 28-12.
BANK NIFTY
In the sharp sell-off, the HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBIN, and Kotak Bank were brutally hammered and these have heavy weights on the index moves.
Whereas ICICI Bank and to some extent SBIN have somewhat recovered, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Bank have failed to hold on to the higher levels.
They have witnessed selling pressure - HDFC Bank below 1460 and Kotak Bank below 1790-1800. Unless these 2 banks clear the hard lines, Bank Nifty is likely to remain volatile having the path of least resistance on the downside.
NIFTY
The IT big neads and other IT heads of the Nifty 50 pack have helped Nifty throughout the week in getting back up from the valley of 16400.
HDFC and Reliance are the biggest troubles for Nifty as these two [HDFC in particular] have dragged Nifty by the collar and brought down.
In addition to the above, the weakness in Bank Nifty as explained above has been an issue and would remain and Nifty may find it hard even if it goes up, to sustain and close the days in the coming week at higher levels.
17250+ on Nifty and 36000+ on Bank Nifty need to be held on to for a couple of days for the indices to have any chance of a good restoration of the bullish sentiment. Until then, even on a declining India Vix, the real volatility and choppiness on an intraday basis is more likely to continue.
Here is the video link:
Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves.
Happy Trading/Investing!
Umesh
25-12-21
This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. I encourage you to view the video as well since not everything can be captured in a document form.
I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week.
Important - Although the markets are very hard to predict in the short term, the main issue presently faced is that even on an intraday basis, the markets have been extremely volatile. This may impact the traders who trade on an intraday basis. If you are one such trader, please be careful and assign top most priority to risk management.
BANK NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364
EOD on 24-12-21 = 34857 up by -1507 points or -4.14% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 35477 on 23-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 34018 on 20-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = 1459 points or 4.29% from the lowest level
In the last one week, Bank Nifty has made a downward move of 761 points or 2.14% which is in continuation of the earlier week’s bearish sign.
NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166
EOD on 24-12-21 = 17003 down by 163 points or 0.95% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 17155.60 on 24-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 16410 on 27-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = 745 points or 4.54% from the lowest level
In the last one week Nifty has made an up move of 18 points or 0.11% which potentially indicates a slowing down of selling pressure.
FII - DII DATA:
DEC 2021
FIIs = -33,271 Crores
DIIs = 26.405 Crores
Net is = -6,866 Crores
There has been a slow down in the severity of selling by FII which may be attributable to the year end holidays and or a potential shift in their strategy. Only time will tell us what is the truth.
Conclusion:
On 24-12, FIIs have turned net sellers though by a mere 44 Crores. This is an unusual sight.
When FIIs turn net sellers generally DIIs keep buying and when DIIs turn net sellers, FIIs buy. This has been the approach - the key point is whether this is likely to happen or DIIs may also join hands in the sell-off.
SGX Nifty is as of the end of the week indicating a flat close and the UIS markets would open only on 27-12 after 24-12 holiday so the true feel of the sentiment would be known only on 28-12.
BANK NIFTY
In the sharp sell-off, the HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBIN, and Kotak Bank were brutally hammered and these have heavy weights on the index moves.
Whereas ICICI Bank and to some extent SBIN have somewhat recovered, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Bank have failed to hold on to the higher levels.
They have witnessed selling pressure - HDFC Bank below 1460 and Kotak Bank below 1790-1800. Unless these 2 banks clear the hard lines, Bank Nifty is likely to remain volatile having the path of least resistance on the downside.
NIFTY
The IT big neads and other IT heads of the Nifty 50 pack have helped Nifty throughout the week in getting back up from the valley of 16400.
HDFC and Reliance are the biggest troubles for Nifty as these two [HDFC in particular] have dragged Nifty by the collar and brought down.
In addition to the above, the weakness in Bank Nifty as explained above has been an issue and would remain and Nifty may find it hard even if it goes up, to sustain and close the days in the coming week at higher levels.
17250+ on Nifty and 36000+ on Bank Nifty need to be held on to for a couple of days for the indices to have any chance of a good restoration of the bullish sentiment. Until then, even on a declining India Vix, the real volatility and choppiness on an intraday basis is more likely to continue.
Here is the video link:
Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves.
Happy Trading/Investing!
Umesh
25-12-21
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