UNREALISTIC OPTIMISM IN THE D-STREET ? (The crash is Imminent).
Facts:-
1. Nifty is down 40% from the last high on 14 Feb'20.
2. No confirmation on the timeline of the vaccine for Covid19 yet.
3. Businesses are shut for more than a month now. (Markets are yet to factor in the losses for quarterly reports).
Analysis:-
In 2008 Nifty fell 30% in 10 Trading sessions (From 9 Jan'08 to 22 Jan'08) then took 10 months to fall 64%.
History might repeat and we'll witness the same scenario or maybe worse than that. When mutual funds will run out of cash to buy the markets and we'll be in the consolidation phase that's when the optimism will burnout and reality might hit people.
I'm not bullish as long as nifty doesn't close above 10,100 as of now.
We are at a 50% retracement level anyway. Markets might not sustain this level and will drop in a few sessions.
1. Nifty is down 40% from the last high on 14 Feb'20.
2. No confirmation on the timeline of the vaccine for Covid19 yet.
3. Businesses are shut for more than a month now. (Markets are yet to factor in the losses for quarterly reports).
Analysis:-
In 2008 Nifty fell 30% in 10 Trading sessions (From 9 Jan'08 to 22 Jan'08) then took 10 months to fall 64%.
History might repeat and we'll witness the same scenario or maybe worse than that. When mutual funds will run out of cash to buy the markets and we'll be in the consolidation phase that's when the optimism will burnout and reality might hit people.
I'm not bullish as long as nifty doesn't close above 10,100 as of now.
We are at a 50% retracement level anyway. Markets might not sustain this level and will drop in a few sessions.
2nd Phase will begin soon worldwide.
All the best to all the short-sellers.
{Make sure to hedge all your positions (Buy OTM calls) just in case someone actually comes up with a vaccine on a Friday evening/You won't be able to fight the upper circuits}.