Will Nifty Succumb to 15835-50 again?
NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -22-07-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15736.6 / 15834.8 / 15726.4 / 15824.05 [+191.95 / +1.23%]
Trading Range Low to High: 98 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 49 points
India VIX: 11.89 / -9.99%
FII DII activities: +700 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
A 202-point recovery reads interesting. However, in effect, we have ended the day around the high of 19-7-21 with the only change that close is higher than that of 19-7.
A strong gap=up opening with a steady rise and the usual expiry type of nosedive and then recovery and closed just below the day’s high and the notorious 15835 levels
All weak hands have been shaken out. But the short-term bears have not yet given up. So it is important to see where the weekly close is.
TOP 3 LOSERS
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER - The FMCG giant made a move that covered the last several days’ range and fell sharply from the high of 2508 to end near day low of 2378. This is a big move ahead of its results. Looks like one more company shaking off expectations and bringing the price to the real level.
ASIAN PAINTS - The scrip that emerged as a strong leader on a red day 20-7-21, could not even test the close of that day and fell. The momentum is still high so this may be the usual profit booking.
BAJAJ AUTO - Somewhat similar to HUL, but it closed better than HUL and is still within the zone, but the momentum has died down. So it will need a recharge of batteries before it can move up further. It may also get attracted towards 200 DMA which is around 3700 should bearishness prevail.
TOP 3 GAINERS
TECHM - A towering move by the IT major which took support from its 20 DMA rose after making consolidation every few days. This is a nice move with the momentum catching up above 60 RSI.
JSW STEEL - A move like today was necessary for it to move out of the wall like resistance created by 50 DMA which is now likely to act as a support. RSI is below 60 so the scrip may face some headwinds in the coming sessions.
BAJAJ FINANCE - A classic 50 DMA bounce after its results and the move is somewhat similar to JSW STEEL in the sense that it still has some headwinds ahead and RSI still below 60.
POSITIVES
INFOSYS, ICICI BANK, RELIANCE & HDFC took it upon themselves to bring the index above 15800 and close it.
While INFOSYS and ICICI BANK showed strength from the open, it was RELIANCE who suddenly woke up from the slumber ahead of its results tomorrow to make all the difference and help lift Nifty after it fell in late trades on the expiry day.
All key heavyweights including HDFC BANK except HINDUSTAN UNILEVER ended in non-negative itself is a big plus for the index.
FII-DII net buyers +600 Crores.
NEGATIVES
Nifty fell in the PM session only because of Banknifty retracing more than 300 points from the day high of 34989 - a classic psycho resistance of 35000.
Barring ICICI BANK, none of the heavyweight banks performed the way they should have considering the fact that there was good positive sentiment today.
Banknifty yet again underperforming by almost 300+ points is going to make things hard for Nifty.
TRADING RANGE FOR 22-07-21
The support line for Nifty is now moved up to 15700-750 with the resistances ar 15835-850 and above until it makes a close above 15950.
34300-3400 is now the support area for Bannifty with 35000-35200 as the resistance band.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
The Nifty lot size is now 50 for all FNO contracts.
TCS is ready to move up but stray news re its spending a few Million USDs on marathon seems to have dampened the spirits. But this is how TCS is. It moves only when it has to and the day it moves, it does not look back. When is the biggest question?
KOTAK BANK is witnessing severe pressure around 1720-25 levels and keeps getting dragged to lower levels close to 1700-1705. There is something that is not visible from the retail vision.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
22-07-2021.
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15736.6 / 15834.8 / 15726.4 / 15824.05 [+191.95 / +1.23%]
Trading Range Low to High: 98 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 49 points
India VIX: 11.89 / -9.99%
FII DII activities: +700 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
A 202-point recovery reads interesting. However, in effect, we have ended the day around the high of 19-7-21 with the only change that close is higher than that of 19-7.
A strong gap=up opening with a steady rise and the usual expiry type of nosedive and then recovery and closed just below the day’s high and the notorious 15835 levels
All weak hands have been shaken out. But the short-term bears have not yet given up. So it is important to see where the weekly close is.
TOP 3 LOSERS
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER - The FMCG giant made a move that covered the last several days’ range and fell sharply from the high of 2508 to end near day low of 2378. This is a big move ahead of its results. Looks like one more company shaking off expectations and bringing the price to the real level.
ASIAN PAINTS - The scrip that emerged as a strong leader on a red day 20-7-21, could not even test the close of that day and fell. The momentum is still high so this may be the usual profit booking.
BAJAJ AUTO - Somewhat similar to HUL, but it closed better than HUL and is still within the zone, but the momentum has died down. So it will need a recharge of batteries before it can move up further. It may also get attracted towards 200 DMA which is around 3700 should bearishness prevail.
TOP 3 GAINERS
TECHM - A towering move by the IT major which took support from its 20 DMA rose after making consolidation every few days. This is a nice move with the momentum catching up above 60 RSI.
JSW STEEL - A move like today was necessary for it to move out of the wall like resistance created by 50 DMA which is now likely to act as a support. RSI is below 60 so the scrip may face some headwinds in the coming sessions.
BAJAJ FINANCE - A classic 50 DMA bounce after its results and the move is somewhat similar to JSW STEEL in the sense that it still has some headwinds ahead and RSI still below 60.
POSITIVES
INFOSYS, ICICI BANK, RELIANCE & HDFC took it upon themselves to bring the index above 15800 and close it.
While INFOSYS and ICICI BANK showed strength from the open, it was RELIANCE who suddenly woke up from the slumber ahead of its results tomorrow to make all the difference and help lift Nifty after it fell in late trades on the expiry day.
All key heavyweights including HDFC BANK except HINDUSTAN UNILEVER ended in non-negative itself is a big plus for the index.
FII-DII net buyers +600 Crores.
NEGATIVES
Nifty fell in the PM session only because of Banknifty retracing more than 300 points from the day high of 34989 - a classic psycho resistance of 35000.
Barring ICICI BANK, none of the heavyweight banks performed the way they should have considering the fact that there was good positive sentiment today.
Banknifty yet again underperforming by almost 300+ points is going to make things hard for Nifty.
TRADING RANGE FOR 22-07-21
The support line for Nifty is now moved up to 15700-750 with the resistances ar 15835-850 and above until it makes a close above 15950.
34300-3400 is now the support area for Bannifty with 35000-35200 as the resistance band.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
The Nifty lot size is now 50 for all FNO contracts.
TCS is ready to move up but stray news re its spending a few Million USDs on marathon seems to have dampened the spirits. But this is how TCS is. It moves only when it has to and the day it moves, it does not look back. When is the biggest question?
KOTAK BANK is witnessing severe pressure around 1720-25 levels and keeps getting dragged to lower levels close to 1700-1705. There is something that is not visible from the retail vision.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
22-07-2021.
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
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