BottomlineWealth
Short

Is the recession round the corner !!!

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
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Looking at data from 2000 till date, seems the 2008 to 2009 fall might repeat.

I just hope i go totally wrong when i say this. ( too sleepy so my wave count should be wrong !!! )
Looking for comments from experts
@BottomlineWealth : Just to add to what I've already put down. The size of internal and external debt in the US has reached epic proportions. The 10000 day+ bull run is going to run out of steam. It is a question of "when" and not "if". Their budget deficit does not allow for any alleviation measures. Once they get hit and we are still in a "bull phase correction?" what do you suppose will happen then? Currently our IT and Pharma stocks are still relatively close to their 52 week highs. There is still a lot of give in the market.
I know that this group comprises of price technocrats but will you peek into charts or look at the writing on the wall.
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Don't think you are an alarmist. We also have yesterday's 10% devaluation of the yuan to contend with now. Implying that in categories where we compete with China, their exports notch up an advantage. The situation of the US China trade war posing an opportunity for India has just been rudely reversed
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KumarAbhilash vivek1471
@vivek1471, we analyse things to such an extent where u r not able to understand what to do what not to..
wakeup friend recession will not come so easily - there r n number of things which has to come. recession means ur economy growth is going to slow down , but i believe and can see on numbers companies earnings have started coming now , so forget about recession , u r witnessin a healthy correction -use it wisely .
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BottomlineWealth KumarAbhilash
@KumarAbhilash,@vivek1471 where do u see nifty next
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thoughtfullinvestor BottomlineWealth
@BottomlineWealth, 14k in next 2 years
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thoughtfullinvestor BottomlineWealth
@BottomlineWealth, and u dream of recession
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vivek1471 BottomlineWealth
@BottomlineWealth, From Feb 2016 a third of the gains have been retraced. I don"t think a 2/3rd retracement can be ruled out. FIIs have been selling despite the rupee becoming one of the weakest performing Asian currencies today. However, I don"t see a slow bleed. All the headwinds and future fears (elections) are making a heady cocktail. I expect Nifty to reach 10000 by Tuesday latest. And if we break 9800 and move downwards, I can see us go all the way to 8000-7800. And this is also my short term strategy. Buying the 10000 put and selling the 9800 put for a hedge against any reversals and squaring off the 9800 put once the 10111 mark gets taken out decisively. People are seeing bearish patterns develop in crude. Hilarious! People believe the markets will stabilize once the earnings reports start coming in. Perhaps. But this market is not waiting for any reports.
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