pankajvw

Budget Day Timewave View

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Hi All,

News causes short term sharp movements which I call spikes, and Timewave can NOT predict them. After spikes are over market always resumes its normal course and does exactly what it was already set out to do. Examples are BREXIT Friday and Trump Tower.

Today as well, there will be spikes and they won’t follow any level or TSL             , but Nifty             after these spikes will eventually bottom out tomorrow only. Dealing with this requires great patience which unfortunately average Joe trader on the street lack and go into panic state, books losses and takes position in the opposite direction. After BREXIT Friday almost everyone was short for next 1 week at least!

Also, even if you have a successful technical strategy, your chart will completely get distorted and will not paint the correct picture. Ideally to deal with it, you shall edit the chart data such that no spikes are seen.

So for an average trader, its better to trade as per their temperament rather than fighting with it. When we already know keeping patience is tough for us, and spikes will definitely be there, what is the need to trade? Better stay out, tomorrow is another day!

So, today before 10:30 AM we will close our positions. After budget if we see a positive spike, we will short again. Otherwise skip the day, and go long tomorrow.
Comment: There is a volatility selling strategy which one can use profitably without any risk. Its independent of market direction.

You can write out of the money options. Sell 8800CE and 8400PE. Becaue of high volatility today premium component in them will be high. After the event is over, premium will come down too. So buy back later. Eat the premium and enjoy!

Chances of Nifty going above 8800 and below 8400 is very low. Even if it does, it will just be a spile and will be over soon. So its a quite safe strategy. But will require large sum of margin money.
Comment: Please close the short position.
Comment: Short again, buy 9000PE, Nifty at 8613 NS
Comment: ...and wait patiently, cant define a stoploss right now. let the spike end.
Comment: TSL: 8675 NS
Comment: TSL Hit, exitinf it here.
Comment: Earlier had shorted at 8650 exited today morning at 8575, made 75 points
Today went short at 8613, covered at 8675 net -65 points
Net +10 points.
(Just keeping track of P&L)
Comment: The time is 10:45 AM tomorrow for this wave to end. if it continues upward after it, then yes. Otherwise short again. Will keep you posted.
big spikes
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Is now Nifty approaching towards new High ?
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pankajvw ajitjadav
@ajitjadav, The time is 10:45 AM tomorrow for this wave to end. if it continues upward after it, then yes. Otherwise short again. Will keep you posted.
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@pankajvw, need a clarification. "if it continues upward after it" does that mean it will not turn and make a new high? any estimates on probabilities? at least past history shows that it is mostly new high after the budget day and that too with a gap up...!!!
Thanks in advance
sudhakar
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pankajvw sudhakar.bng93
@sudhakar.bng93, Once this move is complete, I will explain. Because with chart it will be easier for you to understand.
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Should we take long positions If we get huge spike downs ?
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@Basty, will update, lets wait for now.
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I have already mentioned these dates in my post earlier. BEAR BEAR
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Good.
For me also the turn date is tomorrow Nov 2, but but my target is 8550 first then if that break 8434.
what ever is the bottom it may find on or after 23feb 2017. so I put up here two dates for top and bottom both.
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SaurabhMehra padiyaraa
@padiyaraa, bottom we will get ot know after 23rd feb ? I didn't get this part
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