Expiry Day - Fire Works or Damp Squib ??
Updated
I've marked the levels for Thursday.
Buy above 18550, Sell below 18550. Each target can be a potential short term reversal level. So.
Also, marked a parallel channel, where index is currently at the bottom.
Elections results are 'scheduled' for expiry, and the bulls are starved and thirsty for 3 days. Imagine the consequences if bulls get a chance..there will be a rampage(Scenario 1 below)
Also, all the ATM puts are trading below intrinsic value - is it because the sellers knew something?
3 Scenarios play out in my mind.
Scenario 1: Gap up above 17725. And trend up for rest of the day, and possibly a new ATH
Scenario 2: Flattish opening, sideways movement in the range 18500-18700
Scenario 3: Gap down below 18550, test few resistance levels, and fall below 18500
If you ask me, I feel Scenario 1 is more likely, than the remaining 2. I can be wrong.
Last 3 days, Nifty as well as SGX Nifty danced to tunes of US Markets, let's hope we have a bullish US markets today, and Indian markets tomorrow
In this expiry week, index fell on each of the first 4 days - so what can we expect on 5th and final day??
Options Data - PCR is at 0.55 (oversold?). Pretty high OI concentration of Calls at 18600, 18700 & 18800 levels. These all indicate a bearish bias..and if this continues, it's scenario 2 or 3 that will be likely.
This is neither a prediction nor a recommendation. Trade based on your judgement, and try to have a Stop LOss.
Good Luck!
Buy above 18550, Sell below 18550. Each target can be a potential short term reversal level. So.
Also, marked a parallel channel, where index is currently at the bottom.
Elections results are 'scheduled' for expiry, and the bulls are starved and thirsty for 3 days. Imagine the consequences if bulls get a chance..there will be a rampage(Scenario 1 below)
Also, all the ATM puts are trading below intrinsic value - is it because the sellers knew something?
3 Scenarios play out in my mind.
Scenario 1: Gap up above 17725. And trend up for rest of the day, and possibly a new ATH
Scenario 2: Flattish opening, sideways movement in the range 18500-18700
Scenario 3: Gap down below 18550, test few resistance levels, and fall below 18500
If you ask me, I feel Scenario 1 is more likely, than the remaining 2. I can be wrong.
Last 3 days, Nifty as well as SGX Nifty danced to tunes of US Markets, let's hope we have a bullish US markets today, and Indian markets tomorrow
In this expiry week, index fell on each of the first 4 days - so what can we expect on 5th and final day??
Options Data - PCR is at 0.55 (oversold?). Pretty high OI concentration of Calls at 18600, 18700 & 18800 levels. These all indicate a bearish bias..and if this continues, it's scenario 2 or 3 that will be likely.
This is neither a prediction nor a recommendation. Trade based on your judgement, and try to have a Stop LOss.
Good Luck!
Note
At the time of this writing SGX Nifty is down by 10-15 points..Note
SGX Nifty is faithfully following movements of US Indices ..it's funny as well as sad!Note
Nifty opened flat. So, scenario 1 is ruled out. No fireworks, no rampage by bulls..yetCalls for 18600, 18650, 18700 are being sold in huge quantities..so clearly these levels will act as resistance.
As mentioned earlier, buy above 18550, sell below it. or you can buy above today's open and sell below it.
Note
Target 1 Done - Buy sideNote
Resistance line broken - acted as resistance since 1st Dec. Long with SL.
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