NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The past week saw a return off positive sentiments as could be seen from the positive candles on all five sessions irrespective of the size of the move. The Index made a strongly bullish candle. on weekly chart which is a positive sign. The base around 19220-250 is proving to be a strong for a new wave.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

• The index moved in a range of 435 points viz. between 19432 and 19867
  
• The oscillators of different time frames are showing positive signals
  
• Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
  
• Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
  
• The Index broke the top of the descending channel on daily chart which helped the strong move. It made another break of ascending minor channel
  
• Probability of continuation of the uptrend seems higher as seen from the other indicators
  
• The index is attempting to re-enter the long term trend channel which is around 19950-980 region
  

Additional interesting observations

• The outlook appears to be turning positive with the break of crucial barrier zone of 19520 - 19640
  
• The recovery suggests re-attempt of the earlier highs which matches with the lower end of the long-term trend channel
  
• Index may find supports at 19740, 19630, 19520 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels 19870 and 19980, 20080
  
• There has been a few Gaps created in this bull run
  
• 18818-18908 (28th Jun 23) far off for now
  
• 18972-19079 (29th July 23) far off for now
  
• 19189-19246 (3rd July 23) * being attempted but held for now
  

Final Note

• The Index has stayed well above the long-term trend line and the 200 DMA at 18407
  
• After spending 5 weeks moving back and forth of 55 DMA around 19400-450 range, it finally broke higher which is positive
  
• In the weekly charts the Index is seen attempting to get back to the original ascending channel which is a normal scenario after a break lower
  
• In the daily charts the Index broke a descending channel and also a minor ascending channel which shows the momentum is stronger, the target os this could be 300 points from the break-out level of 19670 which in turn works out closer to ATH
  
• With break above 19570 the Bulls have regained the power and it needs to be seen whether they are able to hold on to the control
  
• Need to remain vigilant as drag can be on both sides
  
• August series Option exposure build up had kept the Index lower. The September series so far has proved to be positive with the Index recovering the entire losses made in August 23
  
• Expected to consolidate remain in the range of 19620-20080 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
  
• With continued momentum the Index has an opportunity to hit the 20K milestone and a new ATH
  

#Stay Safe

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.