Nifty limited downside

May 13, 2022

Nifty should take support or consolidate at 15800 level for a couple of days.
Expecting limited downside and a retracement, if not reversal. Entered into a short selling postion at 15800 PE 19-May-22 expiry.

May 17, 2022

Note

Contunuing to hold the position. Will close it on expiry day.

May 19, 2022

Note

Closed the 19-May 15800CE position yesterday @15.

May 19, 2022

Note

Still expect the Market to retrace or Consolidate at these levels.
Today's closing of Nifty Fut. is same as 13-May closing, i.e 15,784.

Have entered into a new trade of 26-May 16000PE short sell @250.
I could have gotten a better entry, had I waited and not jumped into the trade at the start. Purely a mistake of bias, I am still bias but bias with patience is better than hasty bias. Currently, the option is trading @326.

May 20, 2022

Note

Closed the 26-May 16000PE short sell position @ 88.75.
Didn't want to carry any overnight risk.

May 23, 2022

Note

Currently, not sure about the next move. It's a mixed opinion.

Both Nifty and Bank Nifty looks bullish, but in my opinion:

1) Nifty is in for a consolidation or a downside move. It will be difficult for it to breakout of 16400 level. It could either play around 16000 or move on the down side. If Nifty is really bullish then tomorrow by the end of the first half of the session, Nifty should reach atleast close to 16400 level, without wasting any time.

2) Bank Nifty looks bullish, but IMHO, it is due for one more rally on the downside till 32250 levels. It will be difficult for BN to breakout of 35000. It's because of BN - I am not bullish on Nifty.

3) The global cues also looks weak. IMO, Dow and Nasdaq are likely to fall a little further before making a bottom.

In view of the opinion on Nifty - about consolidation or downside move. In morning, when Nifty was soring high, I sold 16200CE 26May expiry @235. It made a high of 281, I kept my SL @297 thinking I unnecessarily acted oversmart. The rally on the upside, as soon as I took the trade, it made me doubt about my opinion. But after 1:30 pm, things turned out in favour. By the end of the session, I exited at @ 132 and didn't carry the position since in times of uncertainty, it's better to avoid overnight risks.

PS: All Index levels mentioned above are future prices.