Week of July 21 - NDX/YM/RUT/CL/BTC/Real Estate
Updated
The past 2 weeks were what a lot of perma-bulls were citing as "market rotation" - when I honestly think it was nothing more than a short squeeze in small caps and on the Dow.
This weeks post will be a lengthy one as I will cover many different asset classes - as it looks as though the market is setting up for a broad sell of.
The Nasdaq came perfectly down into our decision zone - and now we need to wait to see what the next move is.
From here - I could see NQ going either way - and it would make total sense. There might also be a more mechanical game being played here. If they can hold the NDX steady or bid - then they can dump the rest of the market - and the net carnage on the SPX will be somewhat muted.
The DJI and the Small Cap Russel 2000 - both had some gnarly weekly reversal candles last week. The DJI and RUT both have very similar setups - so I will be covering the DJI,
The Dow now has a really large weekly rejection block formed with that last weekly candle - and it looks like they still want to respect that weekly trendline.
I still maintain that the DOL for the DJI is those yearly lows ~2500 pts lower
Crude Oil rolled contracts to Sept last week - so it morphed the charts a little bit.
From HERE - I want to see oil retrace to 77 - and then pop to take out the Sept Contract highs ~ 84.4
The 10yr continues its march lower - its a slow grind but its doing what we expect.
When you have giant liquid instruments like the bond market or FX - things tend to move slow - but they are somewhat reliable.
Bitcoin has now complete its full retrace on the weekly chart. From HERE - I want to see it drop to take out the June lows.
Real Estate also has a chart similar to the small caps. I think we just saw a massive short squeeze occur - just in time for a broad based sell off across the market.
Everyone and their dog is 100% on board with the David Hunter Melt-Up call , and I can see why. But I think this rally we saw in Small caps was more of a short covering squeeze, rather than a broadening of the market.
Add to the fact that Japan is now openly and directly intervening in Yen markets - this puts massive pressure on the carry-trade.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
Until next week - We'll be watching.
This weeks post will be a lengthy one as I will cover many different asset classes - as it looks as though the market is setting up for a broad sell of.
The Nasdaq came perfectly down into our decision zone - and now we need to wait to see what the next move is.
From here - I could see NQ going either way - and it would make total sense. There might also be a more mechanical game being played here. If they can hold the NDX steady or bid - then they can dump the rest of the market - and the net carnage on the SPX will be somewhat muted.
The DJI and the Small Cap Russel 2000 - both had some gnarly weekly reversal candles last week. The DJI and RUT both have very similar setups - so I will be covering the DJI,
The Dow now has a really large weekly rejection block formed with that last weekly candle - and it looks like they still want to respect that weekly trendline.
I still maintain that the DOL for the DJI is those yearly lows ~2500 pts lower
Crude Oil rolled contracts to Sept last week - so it morphed the charts a little bit.
From HERE - I want to see oil retrace to 77 - and then pop to take out the Sept Contract highs ~ 84.4
The 10yr continues its march lower - its a slow grind but its doing what we expect.
When you have giant liquid instruments like the bond market or FX - things tend to move slow - but they are somewhat reliable.
Bitcoin has now complete its full retrace on the weekly chart. From HERE - I want to see it drop to take out the June lows.
Real Estate also has a chart similar to the small caps. I think we just saw a massive short squeeze occur - just in time for a broad based sell off across the market.
Everyone and their dog is 100% on board with the David Hunter Melt-Up call , and I can see why. But I think this rally we saw in Small caps was more of a short covering squeeze, rather than a broadening of the market.
Add to the fact that Japan is now openly and directly intervening in Yen markets - this puts massive pressure on the carry-trade.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
- I want to see NQ pick a direction and show me confirmation via h4 structure. Half of me is bullish NDX just as it will be used as a mop to soak up capitol that is getting rinsed out of Small caps and the DJI.
- I Want to see The DJI and RUT continue to sell off
- I want to see Oil drop to 77 and respect it, providing an 8% bounce. IF we simply break down from here (and rightfully so - the global economy is weakening) - then we will see it via the weekly chart market structure shift.
- I want to see YM, Real Estate, Bitcoin, and Small caps start moving lower. I think this is the start of a nice market-wide correction
Until next week - We'll be watching.
Trade active
Oil dipped into the 77 area to let us in on the long side - I wanna see 84 trade then we BIG short. I am looking for NQ to sweep these lows and then moon. This week is a BIG deal for indexes.
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