ONDO 4H TRADE SETUP
ONDO is a very exciting project with massive potential in the tokenization of real world assets, an aspect of crypto that has many very high profile interested parties, such as BlackRock and now the US Government via the Trump administration. World Liberty Financial (which is run by the Trump family) has an ONDO position currently and has been adding to it over time, so what is the future of ONDO?
For me the chart has some key points:
- Structurally ONDO been bearish since the later stages of December, retracing 50% from local high and losing the 4H 200 EMA in the process before bouncing off the bullish Orderblock that started the end of year rally in the first place, a very strong support area.
That bounce was capped off by the bearish orderblock zone with rejection in that zone on four separate occasions, so we now have a local range with a clear S/R level at the midpoint.
- Within that mini range we have higher lows constantly which forms a diagonal support as buyers put increasing pressure on price to break through the Bearish orderblock. The 4H 200 EMA has also been reclaimed and in a bullmarket this level is a key level to consider, more so during a trending phase and not chop but still important in this situation.
- That's the technical analysis but money is made in execution of the trade. For me a reclaim of the bearish orderblock would be a bullish trigger for ONDO to climb back up the hill towards local high with consideration to set SLs in stages. The trade would be invalidated on a loss of the bearish orderblock flip as this Swing fail pattern often leads to a further sell-off.
- In a bearish scenario, say BTC misbehaves or some bad news hits the timeline I would step away from the coin if diagonal support is lost. I would look to become a buyer at the bullish orderblock which would give a higher probability entry with the range midpoint and bearish orderblock as targets for price to reach.
BTC still runs the market currently with alts not getting much liquidity, I do believe that will change soon going into the second half of Q1. Once Bitcoin can get a trend going altcoins will follow in my view.
For me the chart has some key points:
- Structurally ONDO been bearish since the later stages of December, retracing 50% from local high and losing the 4H 200 EMA in the process before bouncing off the bullish Orderblock that started the end of year rally in the first place, a very strong support area.
That bounce was capped off by the bearish orderblock zone with rejection in that zone on four separate occasions, so we now have a local range with a clear S/R level at the midpoint.
- Within that mini range we have higher lows constantly which forms a diagonal support as buyers put increasing pressure on price to break through the Bearish orderblock. The 4H 200 EMA has also been reclaimed and in a bullmarket this level is a key level to consider, more so during a trending phase and not chop but still important in this situation.
- That's the technical analysis but money is made in execution of the trade. For me a reclaim of the bearish orderblock would be a bullish trigger for ONDO to climb back up the hill towards local high with consideration to set SLs in stages. The trade would be invalidated on a loss of the bearish orderblock flip as this Swing fail pattern often leads to a further sell-off.
- In a bearish scenario, say BTC misbehaves or some bad news hits the timeline I would step away from the coin if diagonal support is lost. I would look to become a buyer at the bullish orderblock which would give a higher probability entry with the range midpoint and bearish orderblock as targets for price to reach.
BTC still runs the market currently with alts not getting much liquidity, I do believe that will change soon going into the second half of Q1. Once Bitcoin can get a trend going altcoins will follow in my view.
Note
Bearish scenario potentially in play as ONDO loses the diagonal support level as discussed above. As this support is now retested for resistance on the lower timeframes I'm keeping a close eye on it.
US stocks are looking awful in the pre-market with NVIDIA down -8% thanks to the launch of Deepseek AI, a company that clearly has many worried as the AI war heats up. The NY open will be very interesting and will set the tone for the week IMO.
For now I think this is potentially an overreaction from the market and with FOMC also being a factor.
Note
Great recovery by ONDO, using the diagonal support reclaim to push up into the bearish orderblock.
Fakeouts can be very dangerous and can trap traders in the wrong position, on this occasion the SHORT trigger conditions were not met and so no short trade was actioned.
Looking closely to see if the LONG trigger conditions are met in the coming days.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.