Qqq
Updated
So there is 4 major sectors that Drive the QQQ and tech overall.. I like to know what the sectors are doing/showing to get an edge on where QQQ is headed.
Imagine QQQ being a car, and each sector is important part to that car (Transmission, Engine)
Here are the 4 sectors and 2 of the biggest names in each sector
XLK -Msft , Aapl
XLC - Meta, Googl, Nflx
SMH - NVDA , TSM
XLY - AMZN, TSLA
Qqq weekly chart (Log scale)
Price is at the top of a 16yr channel. We tagged the top back in July high and most recently right after trump election rally; both time price got smacked down. The only time price has broke. Out of this channel was with the stimulus liquidity back in 2021.
Daily chart shows a rising wedge at the top of the weekly channel
If we were to trade inside this wedge then then the top is a around 512. Lets say we we broke out of the rising wedge and pushed back up to the weekly channel, that move would take us to a new high of 520 where we would then sell again.
Now let's say we break to the downside of this wedge , that correction would be 10% and would pullback to 460 price action minimum. Maximum we target weekly channel bottom around 390- 400.
Lets start with XLK, this chart mirrors QQQ the most
Daily chart similar rising wedge pattern here
Bearish below 228. Below 228 and the corr3ction has started.
AAPL has been keeping this propped up nicely but now aapl is at a brick wall IMO
Here's aapl chart weekly
Top of trendline and resistance at 237. More importantly is aapl 4 hour money flow just went off.. The thing about indicators is you have to know which ones work well with which stocks and time frame and aapl 4hour Mfi is about 80% reliable and this one is telling me SELL.
So back to XLK
2hour chart and you can see that this week we will either have a double top below 228 or a pennant.. I'm thinking sell early since aapl is at resistance then let job's decide later .. if they do prop it will be more from msft than aapl.
XLC
Daily chart that shows rally from 2022 lows.
Price has stayed contained inside channel up until Nflx rally + Trump election..
Now we are outside channel but trading inside a baby wedge. I think for the month of December this sector will double to 88-91 price action.. Daily MFI just lit up and weekly candle outside Bband
XLY
Weekly chart (Log scale)
Riding the top of its Bbands near channel but price has room for 230 if it wants. Weekly candle is now 14% extended from its 20sma; when this happens usually within the course of the next 4-6weeks price pulls back to test the weekly 20sma.
Daily chart
If price breaks back below 220 then we began a pullback to 212 or previous ATH from 2021. Below 212 and it's a double to back to 205
Lastly is Chip sector
SMH
Weekly chart (Log scale)
Price went parabolic back in 2020 from the supply chain issues and broke above 10yr resistance before correcting back inside. Fast forward and it looks like deja vu all over again. Price is hovering right at trendline and if we fall back inside that would mean a nasty year/years ahead for chips
Close up of the weekly, more immediately looks like price is headed back to its 2 year trendline support around 220
Daily chart..
pretty simple here.
Descending triangle that will flush below 237 but could turn into a double bottom over 248
Over 248 (50sma) and we close gap at 260 and retest rising wedge
The crash scenario for chips is if SMH loses 200.00 price. But I think It's a when not if. In the mean time look for the pullback to 215-220 even if we bounce to 260 .
So to sum it up
For tech we are either Extended at a brick wall or outright bearish.. Nothing looks like a buy and swing to me.. you may see fawkery until they decide to break the wedge on Qqq.. what do I mean by Fawkery?
Well since aapl is at resistance and let's say they don't want a full sell on XLK yet, they may prop up Msft with some fake news/Upgrade and this keeps XLK above its 20sma.
I'm looking for a sell on Qqq this week and for the wedge to be broken to the down side. My immediate target first 2 weeks of Dec is 484
Imagine QQQ being a car, and each sector is important part to that car (Transmission, Engine)
Here are the 4 sectors and 2 of the biggest names in each sector
XLK -Msft , Aapl
XLC - Meta, Googl, Nflx
SMH - NVDA , TSM
XLY - AMZN, TSLA
Qqq weekly chart (Log scale)
Price is at the top of a 16yr channel. We tagged the top back in July high and most recently right after trump election rally; both time price got smacked down. The only time price has broke. Out of this channel was with the stimulus liquidity back in 2021.
Daily chart shows a rising wedge at the top of the weekly channel
If we were to trade inside this wedge then then the top is a around 512. Lets say we we broke out of the rising wedge and pushed back up to the weekly channel, that move would take us to a new high of 520 where we would then sell again.
Now let's say we break to the downside of this wedge , that correction would be 10% and would pullback to 460 price action minimum. Maximum we target weekly channel bottom around 390- 400.
Lets start with XLK, this chart mirrors QQQ the most
Daily chart similar rising wedge pattern here
Bearish below 228. Below 228 and the corr3ction has started.
AAPL has been keeping this propped up nicely but now aapl is at a brick wall IMO Here's aapl chart weekly
Top of trendline and resistance at 237. More importantly is aapl 4 hour money flow just went off.. The thing about indicators is you have to know which ones work well with which stocks and time frame and aapl 4hour Mfi is about 80% reliable and this one is telling me SELL.
So back to XLK
2hour chart and you can see that this week we will either have a double top below 228 or a pennant.. I'm thinking sell early since aapl is at resistance then let job's decide later .. if they do prop it will be more from msft than aapl.
XLC
Daily chart that shows rally from 2022 lows.
Price has stayed contained inside channel up until Nflx rally + Trump election..
Now we are outside channel but trading inside a baby wedge. I think for the month of December this sector will double to 88-91 price action.. Daily MFI just lit up and weekly candle outside Bband
XLY
Weekly chart (Log scale)
Riding the top of its Bbands near channel but price has room for 230 if it wants. Weekly candle is now 14% extended from its 20sma; when this happens usually within the course of the next 4-6weeks price pulls back to test the weekly 20sma.
Daily chart
If price breaks back below 220 then we began a pullback to 212 or previous ATH from 2021. Below 212 and it's a double to back to 205
Lastly is Chip sector
SMHWeekly chart (Log scale)
Price went parabolic back in 2020 from the supply chain issues and broke above 10yr resistance before correcting back inside. Fast forward and it looks like deja vu all over again. Price is hovering right at trendline and if we fall back inside that would mean a nasty year/years ahead for chips
Close up of the weekly, more immediately looks like price is headed back to its 2 year trendline support around 220
Daily chart..
pretty simple here.
Descending triangle that will flush below 237 but could turn into a double bottom over 248
Over 248 (50sma) and we close gap at 260 and retest rising wedge
The crash scenario for chips is if SMH loses 200.00 price. But I think It's a when not if. In the mean time look for the pullback to 215-220 even if we bounce to 260 .
So to sum it up
For tech we are either Extended at a brick wall or outright bearish.. Nothing looks like a buy and swing to me.. you may see fawkery until they decide to break the wedge on Qqq.. what do I mean by Fawkery?
Well since aapl is at resistance and let's say they don't want a full sell on XLK yet, they may prop up Msft with some fake news/Upgrade and this keeps XLK above its 20sma.
I'm looking for a sell on Qqq this week and for the wedge to be broken to the down side. My immediate target first 2 weeks of Dec is 484
Trade active
Despite 
AVGO beat on earnings i think tomorrow we start the sell on tech and rotate back into SmallcapsTrade closed: target reached
That move to 533 was a nasty trap... .. i shorted 529p 12/16 at the open and was about to cut down 40% .. then i added 0dte 532p around 532.30... good day.. bulls are trap now until week of Xmas.. next week will be all sell for tech
Note
Good morning! FUTURES up on a Fomc week , thats weird... probably the inclusion hype from Mstr..
IXIC (Nasdaq) daily chart.. 20,000 has been a brick wall so far and thats why you saw Nasdaq remain red friday while qqq powered higher on a few names...
Going forward we are opening up at 20,000 again so we'll either flush or push a lil higher to 20,200 Fib resistance and then reverse. That 200 points is only a 1% difference and you dont want to get stuck up there long
Note
520 gap close by friday then we'll see what next week will bring.. but atleast we are back under 20k on IXICNote
Opens up below 514 and the next stop is 500.. alot of people trapped on that fake break out
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