Great opportunity to buy Reliance Industries
Hello,
Every time you talk about the companies to invest in the India market, a top company that comes to most people's mind is reliance. I had a close look at reliance and below is my view.
Business Model Overview:
Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) operates in various sectors, primarily energy, petrochemicals, retail, telecommunications, and digital services. Its diverse revenue streams come from refining and marketing, petrochemicals, exploration and production, retail (through Reliance Retail), and telecom (through Jio). This diversity provides a moat for the company, making it resilient to sector-specific downturns.
Revenue and Financials:
As of 2024, Reliance has performed well, increasing its stock price by over 13% from January to October 2024. The stock reached IRN 3200 in July. Reliance's market cap remains strong at ₹19.82 trillion, and its price trends suggest growth despite short-term corrections as shown below.
Technical Analysis:
On the technical front, Reliance Industries has experienced a sideways corrective phase since reaching its peak in July 2024. After a decline in the recent months, the stock is trading at around ₹2,813, following a slight dip in September.
The stock is currently at the bottom of the correction and therefore at a great point for entries with target at INR 3200.
Opportunities for Reliance
Retail Expansion: Reliance Retail is targeting 20% annual growth, outperforming the market's expected 10% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). This aggressive expansion strategy is set to capitalize on both urban and rural markets, leveraging its extensive infrastructure and growing digital footprint.
Renewable Energy Leadership: Reliance is positioning itself as a leader in green energy by planning to establish 20GW of solar PV capacity by 2026. This includes significant investments in battery production and continued strategic advancements in oil-to-chemical (O2C) and oil and gas (O&G) sectors. The company’s emphasis on sustainability reflects its ambition to dominate the renewable energy market while maintaining profitability in traditional sectors.
Operating Expense Control: There is an expectation that the growth in operating expenses will moderate in FY25, leading to improved margins as expansion efforts stabilize.
Risks to Consider for Reliance
Supply Chain and Costs: Rising freight costs and limited international market presence pose challenges. The company must also navigate the delicate balance between sustainability initiatives and profitability amid increasing global supply overcapacity in various sectors.
Oil and Gas Market Volatility: Reliance faces the risks of tight crude oil supply, which could affect margins in its refining and petrochemical segments. Additionally, regulatory changes impacting fuel and rising competition from Chinese exports and imports under trade agreements could create market pressures, challenging Reliance’s competitiveness in global markets.
Final Recommendation
Given Reliance's diversified business, strong retail growth, and strategic investments in renewable energy, it remains a buy for long-term investors. The stock is trading near its correction lows, presenting a potential buying opportunity at current levels (around ₹2,813). The target price should be set at ₹3,200, with a focus on monitoring key risks like crude oil supply constraints and competition.
Good luck!!
Every time you talk about the companies to invest in the India market, a top company that comes to most people's mind is reliance. I had a close look at reliance and below is my view.
Business Model Overview:
Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) operates in various sectors, primarily energy, petrochemicals, retail, telecommunications, and digital services. Its diverse revenue streams come from refining and marketing, petrochemicals, exploration and production, retail (through Reliance Retail), and telecom (through Jio). This diversity provides a moat for the company, making it resilient to sector-specific downturns.
Revenue and Financials:
As of 2024, Reliance has performed well, increasing its stock price by over 13% from January to October 2024. The stock reached IRN 3200 in July. Reliance's market cap remains strong at ₹19.82 trillion, and its price trends suggest growth despite short-term corrections as shown below.
Technical Analysis:
On the technical front, Reliance Industries has experienced a sideways corrective phase since reaching its peak in July 2024. After a decline in the recent months, the stock is trading at around ₹2,813, following a slight dip in September.
The stock is currently at the bottom of the correction and therefore at a great point for entries with target at INR 3200.
Opportunities for Reliance
Retail Expansion: Reliance Retail is targeting 20% annual growth, outperforming the market's expected 10% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). This aggressive expansion strategy is set to capitalize on both urban and rural markets, leveraging its extensive infrastructure and growing digital footprint.
Renewable Energy Leadership: Reliance is positioning itself as a leader in green energy by planning to establish 20GW of solar PV capacity by 2026. This includes significant investments in battery production and continued strategic advancements in oil-to-chemical (O2C) and oil and gas (O&G) sectors. The company’s emphasis on sustainability reflects its ambition to dominate the renewable energy market while maintaining profitability in traditional sectors.
Operating Expense Control: There is an expectation that the growth in operating expenses will moderate in FY25, leading to improved margins as expansion efforts stabilize.
Risks to Consider for Reliance
Supply Chain and Costs: Rising freight costs and limited international market presence pose challenges. The company must also navigate the delicate balance between sustainability initiatives and profitability amid increasing global supply overcapacity in various sectors.
Oil and Gas Market Volatility: Reliance faces the risks of tight crude oil supply, which could affect margins in its refining and petrochemical segments. Additionally, regulatory changes impacting fuel and rising competition from Chinese exports and imports under trade agreements could create market pressures, challenging Reliance’s competitiveness in global markets.
Final Recommendation
Given Reliance's diversified business, strong retail growth, and strategic investments in renewable energy, it remains a buy for long-term investors. The stock is trading near its correction lows, presenting a potential buying opportunity at current levels (around ₹2,813). The target price should be set at ₹3,200, with a focus on monitoring key risks like crude oil supply constraints and competition.
Good luck!!
Portfolio Manager
Dyer & Blair investment Bank, Kenya.
Follow below handles for investment insights
Twitter: twitter.com/thesharkke
Free in-depth stock markets analysis Telegram channel: t.me/stocksfromtechnicaleye
Dyer & Blair investment Bank, Kenya.
Follow below handles for investment insights
Twitter: twitter.com/thesharkke
Free in-depth stock markets analysis Telegram channel: t.me/stocksfromtechnicaleye
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