Russian government and corporate bonds about to default.
Updated
Before the war Russian reserves amounted to 630 billion USD, a conservative estimate puts them to this date @ around 500 billion USD. Every day that the war lingers on, costs russias coffers 15 to 20 billion USD. This is not considering the additional sanctions and exclusion from the banking system slapped on Russia this weekend. Following the debacle of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region and the complete surrender of their troops in this region, Putin ordered to ramp up the use of heavy equipment and to send more troops and equipment to try and conquer the city. This will considerably increase the cost of the war for Russia. Also, this debacle is likely to trigger a wave of cancellations of orders for Russian military hardware, which has proven its self ineffective, specially after the downing of a SU35 (Russias top fighter jet) by a Ukranian SU22. Russia, home to 140 million needs 200 billion USD to ensure the population doesn't starve. At this rate, they will reach this threshold within 10 days, absent of a victory. Also, must be noted that a political victory is now impossible for Russia which was its primary objective for starting this war. Tomorrow the markets will open and within a few days the future of Russia will be decided by its ability to raise cash. The charts suggest these are out of the window and hedge funds may be placing their bets on a total Russian default.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.