Rheinmetall opportunity of 25% upside

Jun 14

Rheinmetall dipped today due to concerns of the European "far-right" (half of them centrists lmao) wanting peace with Russia in the future. This doesn't change anything for Rheinmetall though.

Key facts:
- Earnings grew by 21.8% over the 2023.
- Earnings are forecast to grow 26.06% per year.
- Revenue expected to grow 40% this year.
- New deal with Continental Ag. to hire new employees to fulfill the demand.
- Fair value estimated at 1100-1200 EUR per share.

War scenarios:
- A new conflict means growth of 5% + for each arms dealer as seen many times.
- If the war in Ukraine continues, Rheinmetall gets more deals.
- If the war ends, European countries will need to replenish ammunition storages, which is expected to take up to 10-15 years.

Additionaly:
- Both Trump and Kennedy Jr. expressed how European NATO members should start to fulfill their obligations of 2% GDP budget for army if they want the US to protect them.
- Around 17-18 countries do not meet this obligation yet, most of them being customers of Rheinmetall already.
- The total combined deficit of these countries sits around 44 billion USD as of 2024.


Sources:
reuters.com/article/idUSL8N32R4T9/
reuters.com/world/nato-chief-says-18-countries-meet-2-military-spending-target-2024-02-14/
ft.com/content/99facdd9-bb1d-4ed3-93ef-d059acf4b0ce
simplywall.st/stocks/de/capital-goods/etr-rhm/rheinmetall-shares

Jul 11

Note

Coming along nicely.

Jul 18

Note

Filling gaps as always

Aug 8

Trade closed manually

Not the intended target, the earnings were positive however thanks to the current mood on markets not much reaction. As I've disclosed before I expect a major recession thus this is the point where I close my trade with around 5% gain.

Aug 9

Note

Fuck me am I right