$RUT Canary in the Coal Mine
The Russell 2k tends to be a solid indicator of broader market movement.
While we have realized a correction of ~33%, given the broader macro headwinds... this is not nearly the level expected relative to past major corrections (dot.com & housing market).
Given the past major corrections of 47% and 60%, not including the global pandemic shutdown it's apparent theres further markdown market behavior ahead.
At the least, expecting a pullback to the 100 EMA is minimum expected while pullback to the 200 EMA with a further wick down from there is not outside of reason.
The Fed has only recently begun QT with Central Bank balance sheets letting securities roll off as they mature.
With the Fed hyper-focused on inflation with demand side tools at their disposal, the bearish case remains firmly in place right now.
In addition to rates, unemployment is part of the Fed's dual mandate. Given the sheer # of available jobs (2 jobs for each unemployed person in the US), the Fed has plenty of room to focus on reigning in inflation to achieve price stability.
Will there be bear market rallies? Yes.
Will the Fed pivot? Possibly... especially given mid-term elections this fall.
Q2 closes next week, earnings will start pouring in... until the Fed changes narrative and there's substantive change, principal preservation should be the priority with a risk-off focus unless one is highly skilled at trading during extreme volatility.
While we have realized a correction of ~33%, given the broader macro headwinds... this is not nearly the level expected relative to past major corrections (dot.com & housing market).
Given the past major corrections of 47% and 60%, not including the global pandemic shutdown it's apparent theres further markdown market behavior ahead.
At the least, expecting a pullback to the 100 EMA is minimum expected while pullback to the 200 EMA with a further wick down from there is not outside of reason.
The Fed has only recently begun QT with Central Bank balance sheets letting securities roll off as they mature.
With the Fed hyper-focused on inflation with demand side tools at their disposal, the bearish case remains firmly in place right now.
In addition to rates, unemployment is part of the Fed's dual mandate. Given the sheer # of available jobs (2 jobs for each unemployed person in the US), the Fed has plenty of room to focus on reigning in inflation to achieve price stability.
Will there be bear market rallies? Yes.
Will the Fed pivot? Possibly... especially given mid-term elections this fall.
Q2 closes next week, earnings will start pouring in... until the Fed changes narrative and there's substantive change, principal preservation should be the priority with a risk-off focus unless one is highly skilled at trading during extreme volatility.
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