Reason for starting wave count from the point shown here is,in the past price movement(from covid low's) no prior swing high is retraced faster then the fall from that high took to form.
Rules and Reason for impulse count
1)wave 2 should take more time then wave 1 to form,here this rule is followed
2)0-2 trend line should not be touched by wave 1 price movement,here this rule is followed
3)wave 3 should not be shortest,here this rule is followed
4)One of the 1,3 or 5 should be extended,here wave 3 has extended by atleast 161.8% of wave 1 in both the degree's,here this rule is followed
5)wave 4 should not enter wave 2 price zone,here this rule is followed in intermediate counts.
6)wave 4 should take more time then wave 2,here this rule is followed in intermediate count.
7)Atleast one alteration should be there between wave 2 and wave 4,here this rule is followed as Alteration is seen between primary 2 and 4 in terms of pattern, price and time.
8)0-2 channel should not have more then 4 touch-point,here this rule is followed after which it was breached.
seems like sail has completed primary impulse wave 3 whose intermediate 5 was truncated and currently forming an complex correction(wxy) or a triangle pattern which was triggered after 2 stage confirmation on the breach 0-2 trend-line and intermediate wave 4 lows in lesser time then intermediate 5 took to form.As of now it seems like wave w or wave A in the form of regular flat has been done and currently wave x or wave B is in the making.On the downside wave 4 retraces generally 38.2 % wave 3 which is coming @ 115 which was achieved by price in current fall,but since then bounce has not been sharp or impulsive in nature indicating wave x or wave B is in making.As per the rule wave 4 is longer then wave 3 and primary wave 3 took 88 candles to complete hence going by that logic current fall or side ways movement can atleast continue till 20th december post which 31 days cycle low is expected @ 29th december.
On the downside support is coming at following levels
Primary wave 3 38.22% retracement @ 115.40
Primary wave 3 50.00% retracement @ 106.20
Primary wave 3 61.80% retracement @ 97.00
Invalidation of this count is @ 81 level where if price goes then wave 4 will be entering wave 2 territory.
Upside seems limited as of now but accumulation can be done if price comes @ above mentioned levels for investment purpose as on the basis of this count,as wave 5 is yet to unfold and in commodities wave 5 is assumed to be longest of 1,3,5.
will it make a wxy or a triangle only time will tell but short term trader should not look for bigger up side move looking at the current price structure until december 20th,2021.
This labelling is done by following NEO wave rules,in the past i have posted wave counts on sail through elliot wave rules.Rules of impulse labelling are different in both theories and hence the counts are also different.Neo wave also in-corporates time element in labelling waves which helps in timing entries and exits.
Here i have also incorporated time cycle.In the shown chart 31-day cycle is working quite well since covid low's(I cant show entire chart from covid low's as it wud very untidy) which help's in identifying important low points,meaning around cycle end day's important low is supposed to be formed.
Let me know if you find this post informative and if i have missed any rules while labelling.
Rules and Reason for impulse count
1)wave 2 should take more time then wave 1 to form,here this rule is followed
2)0-2 trend line should not be touched by wave 1 price movement,here this rule is followed
3)wave 3 should not be shortest,here this rule is followed
4)One of the 1,3 or 5 should be extended,here wave 3 has extended by atleast 161.8% of wave 1 in both the degree's,here this rule is followed
5)wave 4 should not enter wave 2 price zone,here this rule is followed in intermediate counts.
6)wave 4 should take more time then wave 2,here this rule is followed in intermediate count.
7)Atleast one alteration should be there between wave 2 and wave 4,here this rule is followed as Alteration is seen between primary 2 and 4 in terms of pattern, price and time.
8)0-2 channel should not have more then 4 touch-point,here this rule is followed after which it was breached.
seems like sail has completed primary impulse wave 3 whose intermediate 5 was truncated and currently forming an complex correction(wxy) or a triangle pattern which was triggered after 2 stage confirmation on the breach 0-2 trend-line and intermediate wave 4 lows in lesser time then intermediate 5 took to form.As of now it seems like wave w or wave A in the form of regular flat has been done and currently wave x or wave B is in the making.On the downside wave 4 retraces generally 38.2 % wave 3 which is coming @ 115 which was achieved by price in current fall,but since then bounce has not been sharp or impulsive in nature indicating wave x or wave B is in making.As per the rule wave 4 is longer then wave 3 and primary wave 3 took 88 candles to complete hence going by that logic current fall or side ways movement can atleast continue till 20th december post which 31 days cycle low is expected @ 29th december.
On the downside support is coming at following levels
Primary wave 3 38.22% retracement @ 115.40
Primary wave 3 50.00% retracement @ 106.20
Primary wave 3 61.80% retracement @ 97.00
Invalidation of this count is @ 81 level where if price goes then wave 4 will be entering wave 2 territory.
Upside seems limited as of now but accumulation can be done if price comes @ above mentioned levels for investment purpose as on the basis of this count,as wave 5 is yet to unfold and in commodities wave 5 is assumed to be longest of 1,3,5.
will it make a wxy or a triangle only time will tell but short term trader should not look for bigger up side move looking at the current price structure until december 20th,2021.
This labelling is done by following NEO wave rules,in the past i have posted wave counts on sail through elliot wave rules.Rules of impulse labelling are different in both theories and hence the counts are also different.Neo wave also in-corporates time element in labelling waves which helps in timing entries and exits.
Here i have also incorporated time cycle.In the shown chart 31-day cycle is working quite well since covid low's(I cant show entire chart from covid low's as it wud very untidy) which help's in identifying important low points,meaning around cycle end day's important low is supposed to be formed.
Let me know if you find this post informative and if i have missed any rules while labelling.