Bullish Projection for SBI – Cause & Effect Analysis

1. Cause: Capital Adequacy Boost via ₹25,000 Cr Fundraising (May 2025)

• Effect: Strengthened lending capacity + institutional confidence
  
• Price Action: Institutional investors view this as a sign of growth readiness.
  
• Stock may break past ₹900–₹920 resistance, heading to ₹980+ once fundraising is completed or oversubscribed.
  

📅 Expected Impact Window: June–August 2025

2. Cause: Consistently Improving Asset Quality (Net NPA down to 0.47% as of Q4 FY25)

• Effect: Lower provisioning + stronger quarterly earnings
  
• Price Action: Sustained drop in GNPA/NNPA drives EPS upgrades from brokerages.
  
• Strong Q1 FY26 results (August 2025) could be a catalyst for a move to ₹1,020+ if provisioning is sharply reduced.
  

📅 Expected Impact Window: August–October 2025

3. Cause: Dividend Payout of ₹15.90 + Operating Profit Growth (Q4 up 8.8% YoY)

• Effect: Retail investor interest + income-seeking demand
  
• Price Action: Dividend income + healthy operating metrics may pull in conservative investors.
  
• A post-dividend rally toward ₹1,100 is possible as confidence builds.
  

📅 Expected Impact Window: May–July 2025 (around record and payment date: May 30, 2025)

Projections and price targets mentioned are speculative and based on publicly available financial data and assumptions as of May 2025. Market conditions, macroeconomic developments, and unforeseen events may significantly affect actual outcomes.

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