Market Updates and Strategies On Mostly Everything
Updated
Let's dive deep and take another look at what is playing out across the board in the SnP500, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, and DXY.
No matter how much we think we know, the Market continues to demonstrate it is nothing more than a natural phenomenon bound by Fibonacci patterns. If we start paying attention we find that circumstances that drive the news mean nothing. There is always a convenient hindsight headline to justify market movements, up until Kramer says "I don't know, the Market is CrAzY".
Yes, global circumstances cause deviations in price but the dominate trend rides on a fibbonaci framework. Ultimately, there is a magnetic attraction to these fibonacci levels and when they are tagged, traders and algos react. The question is it done intentionally or is it just natural patterns playing out like in all of nature.
Conclusion:
The Market's natural framework is F i b b o n a c i. We don't need to know why. We only need to understand how to trade it.
Look for yourself at the S P X on a macro view. From the last impulsive leg up to the higher low, we can see that prices continue to tag fibonacci extensions all the way up to where we are topping out right now. This is a critical point.
1. If price fails to breach it that means stay on the sidelines.
2. If price builds support above it then it's time to buy.
3. Never short the SnP500. It's designed to go up.
SnP500
Right now the CoT report says that Money Managers are decisively long on the market. However, majority of Speculators and Hedge Funds are short. Aside from the macro fibs, I am looking at the trendline that everyone else is watching and I'm waiting on sidelines as far as trading f u t u r e s.
Bitcoin
A few weeks ago Bitcoin started showing signs of a parabolic move.
We can see a major break out from the macro downtrend, a perfect retest, and it's first leg up. Pay attention to trader psychology. Right now everyone who missed this is dying for a pullback and 169% sure there will be one at the All Time High. To me, this is a great time for Sellers to get squeezed out. We shall see. The 2nd leg up is often the most powerful.
Gold
A few weeks ago my eye was on the R S I for a breakout and a continuation of price action building support along a macro fib extension. Targeting the fibs above.
We can now see a confirmed R S I break out and price action still building that base. If this move plays out it will likely make it's biggest moves overnight in the futures market. So I remain long because I'm lazy and don't feel like waking up that early.
Silver
A few weeks ago it looked like Silver was forming a bullish consolidation pattern. Eye on that R S I.
We can now see prices are approaching a do or die breakout point. I'm watching for a false break down but ultimately up up and away.
U.S Dollar
A few weeks ago it looked like a bearish continuation pattern was forming.
Now it looks like it's breaking down so I'm looking for 1 more leg down, followed by a dead cat bounce. Ultimately I think it rolls over and the macro downtrend continues.
Trading is risky, don't listen to me.
Long:
Crypto: BTC, ETH
Futures: MGCG2021, QGF2021
Bullion: Gold, Silver
Equities: LUKOY, KMI, TCEHY, EQT, GDX, PHYS, CEF, SLV, TRV and others.
Planning to Long:
Futures: SI, MES, and more MGC
and more...
No matter how much we think we know, the Market continues to demonstrate it is nothing more than a natural phenomenon bound by Fibonacci patterns. If we start paying attention we find that circumstances that drive the news mean nothing. There is always a convenient hindsight headline to justify market movements, up until Kramer says "I don't know, the Market is CrAzY".
Yes, global circumstances cause deviations in price but the dominate trend rides on a fibbonaci framework. Ultimately, there is a magnetic attraction to these fibonacci levels and when they are tagged, traders and algos react. The question is it done intentionally or is it just natural patterns playing out like in all of nature.
Conclusion:
The Market's natural framework is F i b b o n a c i. We don't need to know why. We only need to understand how to trade it.
Look for yourself at the S P X on a macro view. From the last impulsive leg up to the higher low, we can see that prices continue to tag fibonacci extensions all the way up to where we are topping out right now. This is a critical point.
1. If price fails to breach it that means stay on the sidelines.
2. If price builds support above it then it's time to buy.
3. Never short the SnP500. It's designed to go up.
SnP500
Right now the CoT report says that Money Managers are decisively long on the market. However, majority of Speculators and Hedge Funds are short. Aside from the macro fibs, I am looking at the trendline that everyone else is watching and I'm waiting on sidelines as far as trading f u t u r e s.
Bitcoin
A few weeks ago Bitcoin started showing signs of a parabolic move.
We can see a major break out from the macro downtrend, a perfect retest, and it's first leg up. Pay attention to trader psychology. Right now everyone who missed this is dying for a pullback and 169% sure there will be one at the All Time High. To me, this is a great time for Sellers to get squeezed out. We shall see. The 2nd leg up is often the most powerful.
Gold
A few weeks ago my eye was on the R S I for a breakout and a continuation of price action building support along a macro fib extension. Targeting the fibs above.
We can now see a confirmed R S I break out and price action still building that base. If this move plays out it will likely make it's biggest moves overnight in the futures market. So I remain long because I'm lazy and don't feel like waking up that early.
Silver
A few weeks ago it looked like Silver was forming a bullish consolidation pattern. Eye on that R S I.
We can now see prices are approaching a do or die breakout point. I'm watching for a false break down but ultimately up up and away.
U.S Dollar
A few weeks ago it looked like a bearish continuation pattern was forming.
Now it looks like it's breaking down so I'm looking for 1 more leg down, followed by a dead cat bounce. Ultimately I think it rolls over and the macro downtrend continues.
Trading is risky, don't listen to me.
Long:
Crypto: BTC, ETH
Futures: MGCG2021, QGF2021
Bullion: Gold, Silver
Equities: LUKOY, KMI, TCEHY, EQT, GDX, PHYS, CEF, SLV, TRV and others.
Planning to Long:
Futures: SI, MES, and more MGC
and more...
Note
Me 11/14: There is always a convenient hindsight headline to justify market movements, up until Kramer says "I don't know, the Market is CrAzY"." *Cramer.
Today 11/24: CNBC's Jim Cramer said Tuesday that gains in the speculative part of the stock market are "insane."
cnbc.com/2020/11/24/cramer-c...
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