S&P 500 IndexShort
March 2021 Prediction (S&P down 1800-1600)
Bars copied from previous recession.
Average bear market = 36% drop in 11.7 months
Risk/Indicators
**Both Debt & Equity Bubble**
- interest rates are at historical lows
Debt
Equity
People are leveraging to invest in Tesla, with P/E estimate for 2020... 93.51!!!
S&P500:
global housing market bubble
Trigger
- Coronavirus kills boomers
- USA has only tested 12000 people total
- CDC underfunded
- Ppl cant go to work = less income
- companies make less money
- massive supply shock (chinese manufacturing) = higher prices
Result
- decreased business earnings & household income
- decreased consumer demand, decreased supply
altogether = decreased GDP
Average bear market = 36% drop in 11.7 months
Risk/Indicators
**Both Debt & Equity Bubble**
- interest rates are at historical lows
Debt
- household debt
- student debt
- corporate debt
- public debt
Equity
People are leveraging to invest in Tesla, with P/E estimate for 2020... 93.51!!!
S&P500:
- 1929 P/E = 21... depression
- 1973 P/E = 18... recession
- 2020 P/E = 20.4...?
global housing market bubble
Trigger
- Coronavirus kills boomers
- USA has only tested 12000 people total
- CDC underfunded
- Ppl cant go to work = less income
- companies make less money
- massive supply shock (chinese manufacturing) = higher prices
Result
- decreased business earnings & household income
- decreased consumer demand, decreased supply
altogether = decreased GDP
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