SP500 - Top building and possibly some correction later
Daily: Few red candle days, but nothing major. I think Kijun Sen should catch up a little bit more to Tenkan Sen and Price before we can see a more reliable sell signal, which can end in a deeper correction.
MACD and Slow Stoch are both bearish and DMI lines started to converge. We still can not exclude one more spike to the recent/record high until Thursday ECB meeting, but my feeling is that it would be enough only for a small double top, followed by a dip to a measured tgt ard 2015.
4 Hrs: We almost had a sell signal, but the momentum was still not strong enough to push Price below the Kumo Cloud. Senkou B initially blocked the move and Price popping up again with Slow Stoch giving a short term buy signal. Most likely this range consolidation will continue for some more time. We have to see if Price can go to a new high or turns down again before reaches the range top. If you are looking for a short setup you have to options:
- Agressive top hunter: Wait until Slow Stoch goes to overbought, and check if Price is still within the consolidation range. If it is so (no higher high), then sell with a Slow Stoch bearish signal. Tgis strategy has better possible risk-reward, but higher initial risk to fail, so use this in smaller trade size.
- Conservative Ichimoku follower (illustrated on the chart): wait until consolidation is clearly over, so basically sell when Price breaks below the Kumo. This strategy has thinner possible risk-reward (still should be above 2:1), but lower risk to be stopped.
Actually I will use both strategies in 0,5 and in 1 trade unit sizes.
MACD and Slow Stoch are both bearish and DMI lines started to converge. We still can not exclude one more spike to the recent/record high until Thursday ECB meeting, but my feeling is that it would be enough only for a small double top, followed by a dip to a measured tgt ard 2015.
4 Hrs: We almost had a sell signal, but the momentum was still not strong enough to push Price below the Kumo Cloud. Senkou B initially blocked the move and Price popping up again with Slow Stoch giving a short term buy signal. Most likely this range consolidation will continue for some more time. We have to see if Price can go to a new high or turns down again before reaches the range top. If you are looking for a short setup you have to options:
- Agressive top hunter: Wait until Slow Stoch goes to overbought, and check if Price is still within the consolidation range. If it is so (no higher high), then sell with a Slow Stoch bearish signal. Tgis strategy has better possible risk-reward, but higher initial risk to fail, so use this in smaller trade size.
- Conservative Ichimoku follower (illustrated on the chart): wait until consolidation is clearly over, so basically sell when Price breaks below the Kumo. This strategy has thinner possible risk-reward (still should be above 2:1), but lower risk to be stopped.
Actually I will use both strategies in 0,5 and in 1 trade unit sizes.
