Bulls and Bears both have to focus now.
Daily: The miracle rally (caused simply by greed, or some CB conspiracy?) may come to an end soon again. At least there is increasing chance SP500 will start to build a top ard 2015-2030.
In terms of Ichimoku the picture is rather bullish, but with such a pace both in selling and buying it is very hard to trade Ichimoku signals alone. What if in the long term it's really gonna develope the bearish megaphone pattern?
I don't say we have any firm sell signals (not even on lower time frames as I will give details below), but we have some warning signals already: Slow Stoch reached overbought level after more than 11 % rally with no real correction. Yesterday candle is a small hanging man, similar to the one seen 19/Sept, which caused reversal selling.
This can bring some pullback minimum down to Tenkan Sen and the Kumo and/or increasing chance for top formation to develope. The question is if the top formation will happen with lower or with higher volatility. Big bearish reversal we can not yet expect, as Kijun Sen is still far below Price, and MACD is not yet turning bearish.
Equilibrium price range is 1925-1960.
4 Hrs: The clear primer bullish trend is in danger, but we are still far away from a reversal signal. In case of a trendline penetration the pull back initially may happen down to 1995 (Kijun Sen) or 1970 equilibrium price at Kumo
1 Hr: Price started consolidation, enterring Kumo. The Kumo is relatively thick below Price, Kumo bottom is 1995, that is first support after trendline is gone. For a counter trend it won't be enough just just break below Kumo, as the higher time frames are still bullish. After first break attempt I think Price could be pulled back up to Kumo, and only the second sell signal (e.g. a strong bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross below the cloud) would bring deeper selling.
Strategy: Start to accumulate Dec/14 or Jan/15 Long Put options at 1950 or 1925 Strike Price. Don't load all at once, as you can never know if they blow the bubble further to 2040-2050.
Outright shorts not yet recommended, or maybe just in very small size, like 1/3 Trade Unit.
Daily: The miracle rally (caused simply by greed, or some CB conspiracy?) may come to an end soon again. At least there is increasing chance SP500 will start to build a top ard 2015-2030.
In terms of Ichimoku the picture is rather bullish, but with such a pace both in selling and buying it is very hard to trade Ichimoku signals alone. What if in the long term it's really gonna develope the bearish megaphone pattern?
I don't say we have any firm sell signals (not even on lower time frames as I will give details below), but we have some warning signals already: Slow Stoch reached overbought level after more than 11 % rally with no real correction. Yesterday candle is a small hanging man, similar to the one seen 19/Sept, which caused reversal selling.
This can bring some pullback minimum down to Tenkan Sen and the Kumo and/or increasing chance for top formation to develope. The question is if the top formation will happen with lower or with higher volatility. Big bearish reversal we can not yet expect, as Kijun Sen is still far below Price, and MACD is not yet turning bearish.
Equilibrium price range is 1925-1960.
4 Hrs: The clear primer bullish trend is in danger, but we are still far away from a reversal signal. In case of a trendline penetration the pull back initially may happen down to 1995 (Kijun Sen) or 1970 equilibrium price at Kumo
1 Hr: Price started consolidation, enterring Kumo. The Kumo is relatively thick below Price, Kumo bottom is 1995, that is first support after trendline is gone. For a counter trend it won't be enough just just break below Kumo, as the higher time frames are still bullish. After first break attempt I think Price could be pulled back up to Kumo, and only the second sell signal (e.g. a strong bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross below the cloud) would bring deeper selling.
Strategy: Start to accumulate Dec/14 or Jan/15 Long Put options at 1950 or 1925 Strike Price. Don't load all at once, as you can never know if they blow the bubble further to 2040-2050.
Outright shorts not yet recommended, or maybe just in very small size, like 1/3 Trade Unit.
