Tata Steel- Why you should be careful & Surprise downside move

Tata Steel is my baby- because I started my career as an analyst & picked this stock for selling at 430 zones in Dec 2014 & then buying in the zone 200-210 which was Bang on Target- as I visualized this triangle in Dec2014.

Tata Steel Monthly Chart
Dec 2014 -it was in D-leg of the triangle- before coming to TradingView- when I set my eyes on TS counter. So, it could be larger wave-1 from bottoms@199.70 & likely to finish its leg at 441- recent high- likely because I want TS to break 377 which will confirm that 441 is the short term high.

I was clear that Tata Steel could surprise market because there is an expanding wedge structure- which likely happens when retails go extremely bullish on the counter.

I remember we traded circled wave-i at 408 & that was exciting till 355-357 in earlier updates.

For me as an elliottician-I am clear that Tata steel is in nested 5th waves & likely to cause havoc in the markets which it started from 441 recent high.

Trading Strategy
Any bounce in the zone 418-420 from current lows@403 can be taken as selling opportunity.

Long Term Strategy
Likely going below 377 -will be the first sign of confirmation that TS is looking for 290-295 zones which could come true in Year 2017.

Thank You.
Trade active: 10:53 Hrs 15th Nov2016

Last Price@403.50

Day's Low@399

Avoid Taking Shorts as short term bounce could be expected in the zone 410-412 if holds starts falling that recent high can be taken as selling opportunity or going into the zone 418-420 zone
Trade active: 11:03 Hrs 15thNov2016

Last Price@403

I said bounce for selling should be an opportunity -buying in the bounce is purely risk taking calls if one can afford to lose with strict stops below 400-401 zone then can go for targets 410-412 & later 418-420 zone
Trade active: 11:27 Hrs 15th Nov2016

Last Price@398

TS is not holding downside
Trade active: 13:43 Hrs 15th Nov2016

Last Price@400
Nifty started for a bounce from 8140-8150 zones so TS could also play its part in the bounce
Trade active: 14:30 Hrs 15th Nov2016

Last Price@396.75
At one moment I though Nifty will give a bounce just trapped emotionally- me too, so kindly avoid any long positions in the present situation. Likely we will for some more time & even no long positions as Index is not supporting
Trade active: 15:30 Hrs 15th Nov2016

Closed at 392.50
Trade active: 16:56 Hrs 21st Nov2016

Day's Low@366

Closed at 373

Here we go below 377.
Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
​Growth Director - TradingView India

YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYcnYveYBNLD-Qp54hvZogw

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@AbhishekHSinghCMT - I really like your analysis man... very detailed and fact based. You generally use only Elliot waves as your primary indicator or any candlesticks pattern analysis as well given considerations?
AbhishekHSinghCMT SaurabhMehra
@SaurabhMehra, I do all- use it when I feel it -but my soul method is Elliott waves
Tks bro
@ashokm81, Now Nifty is looking to put short term bottom at current lows so we can see TS for a possible bounce
Can i buy this level
@ashokm81, Still@396.50 - it is not looking good -buying for the bounce is always risky so likely I wait for Nifty to give some confidence then I will decide
Great analysis sir...fully agree with u...
AbhishekHSinghCMT yashesh200098
@yashesh200098, Thanks
whats the target for this month (nov settelment)
@insightjsr, Timing is a very complicated issue -if you can know timing, then I guess you will become the next Sir -Jhunjhunwala. Next what I am looking is the bounce from nearby levels of 397 to 418-420's in the current situation so there could be 2 opportunities -one taking long positions & later short positions. In a downtrend market -buying is always risky.
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