$TLT Breaking Four Year Downtrend?

Jun 4

Looks to me that TLT may be finally breaking a downtrend (Interest Rates Reversing Lower?). It is too early to tell for sure but it is an interesting development.

This could be a double edge sword. Rates coming down may be good for stocks short term but longer term it may well mean the bond markets are starting to see a recession ahead. That would not be good for equities.

This is may develop into a trade. All TBD.

Jun 6

Note

TLT is a little to stretched here for me. I would like to see it pullback to around thee 20 EMA (green) or even the 50 DMA (red) and then go long once it resumes it's uptrend. I have no idea if that will happen but for my trading style I need either a consolidation area and resumption of trend or pullback and resumption. Let's see what happens.

Jun 12

Note

TLT Looks to me that the pattern I had drawn in is playing out this morning. I will not be opening a position today or at least until after #Fed Chair #Powel speaks at 2:30 PM ET today. But "if" he comes out dovish on rates, this could be worth a few % move to the upside. All TBD.

Jun 13

Trade active

I took this trade today as it crossed back above today's AVWAP. My stop is just below yesterdays low. It either goes or take a small loss. All TBD.

Jun 18

Note

TLT continues to work. I entered on Jun 13th @ 93.02 as of this post it is trading at 94.54. It hasn't been all smooth but I am up over 1.6% on the trade. It is not a barn burner for sure. I have however, moved my stop to breakeven...

Jun 25

Note

TLT continues to play out but at a snails pace. I just added here today as it looks like a nice consolidation area. Of course it could go either way. I am now holding a 2/3 size position.

Jun 28

Trade closed manually

I closed this out today for a small loss of 35 cents a share. This has been giving gains up to fast. Back on the watchlist.