Taking another LONG ride at 58.61 with TMF (oversold)

Sep 23

It worked well last time (+11.9% in 7 trading days) and even better the time after that when I FORGOT to trade it - see my last idea for TMF for how that went. So I went long at 58.61 this morning. I'm not missing this train again.

I don't think rates are going up any time soon and neither does anyone else. I think this is a buy the rumor sell the news pullback that is part of a larger uptrend as part of this rate normalization regime by the Fed.

I also think we are getting back to a normal world where the bond market is not so highly correlated with stocks. Given that I think the market may take a little rest this week, it seems like a good time to get in on TMF. Will add more if it stays oversold and will sell lots when they become profitable.

As always, this is market edutainment and a play by play of my trading, not investment advice, and should not be taken as such. Trade at your own risk.

Sep 24

Note

Down day overall but actually a gain from my entry point, so no adding to the position today.

Holding Lot 1 - 58.61

Sep 25

Trade active

Added another lot at the close - still oversold

Lot 2 - 57.35

Oct 4

Trade active

Added another lot at 53.64 - oversold again.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64

Oct 7

Trade active

Still oversold so I added a lot at the close for 52.47.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47

Oct 9

Note

Added again at 51.77 - oversold again.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77

Oct 10

Note

Still oversold so I added another lot at 51.08.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08

Oct 21

Note

Added another lot at 47.92 - oversold again

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.92

Oct 23

Trade active

Oversold again so I added again at 47.64 at the close.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.92
47.64

Nov 25

Note

When I said "LONG ride" in my original title, I didn't mean it like this. Today was the first day it's been overbought in 2-1/2 months. I sold the 2 most recent lots at the close today for 48.10, for gains of:

+0.38% in 25 days
+0.97% in 23 days

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08

6 days ago

Note

This is becoming a little bit of a tiresome position. I thought maybe there would be a little bit longer upward push, but no such luck. Oh well. Added again at 47.50.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50

5 days ago

Note

Added again at 45.75. I didn't mean LONG in the title like this...patience is a virtue I guess.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
45.75

4 days ago

Note

It's almost comical how bad the week was for this one - down 10% in just the last 3 sessions. Inflation, feel free to ease up any time now... Hopefully JP and the Gang will decide that this is just a blip and lower rates anyway and everybody gets a little happy time. Until then, I have to keep adding lots.

Added another one at 44.54 at the close. This is why I've switched to FPC in all my other trading. I'm holding 9 lots right now. I'd be a lot more upset about that if I weren't holding 18 of PXS... Have a good weekend! I'm just glad to see this week end.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
45.75
44.54