MARKETS week ahead: September 8 – 14

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Last week in the news

The previous week was marked with surprisingly low August Non-farm payrolls of only 22K new jobs in the U.S. Figures increased market expectations that the Fed will cut rates at the FOMC meeting in September. Market reaction at Friday's trading session was strong. The S&P 500 reached another all time highest level and then tumbled back toward the 6.481, within the same day. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark dropped down from 4,2% to 4,0%. Although the US Dollar remained relatively flat during the week, the price of gold reached a new all time highest level, ending the week at $3.586. This week the crypto market was left aside, with BTC closing the week by testing the $110K.

U.S. labour market data took centre stage in the markets last week. On Wednesday, the JOLTs Job Openings report showed 7.181 million positions for July, falling short of the expected 7.3 million. Friday delivered another surprise, with August Non-Farm Payrolls revealing just 22K new jobs, which was well below the 75K anticipated by the market. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% in August, marking a 3.7% y/y increase. A significant drop in the US jobs data increased market expectations that the Fed will now certainly have a good grounds to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at September FOMC meeting.

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz cautions that bond markets haven’t fully accounted for the weakening U.S. fiscal outlook, particularly the temporary boost from tariff revenues that won't last as businesses readjust supply chains. He suggests that the current projections are overly optimistic and that the true financial position of the U.S. may be significantly worse. Stiglitz’s remarks signal that investors should brace for deeper fiscal and inflationary risks than markets currently anticipate

There has been a lot of media coverage related to the announced split of shares of Kraft Hainz, aimed to unlock brand value. Shares of the company were losing value during the year, with a stock loss of around 21% over the period of the past year. Famous investor Warren Buffett commented on the split, expressing disappointment, noting that breaking up will not resolve the deeper challenges the company is facing. The proposed spin-off will create two distinct, independently traded entities, one centered on sauces and spreads, the other on grocery staples, a strategy aimed at unlocking shareholder value after years of sluggish performance.
The European Commission has levied a €2.95 B (US $3.45 B) antitrust fine against Google for abusing its dominance in the adtech market by favouring its own services, marking the company’s fourth major EU penalty. Regulators have given Google 60 days to propose remedies to end these self-preferencing practices, warning that failure to comply could lead to divestitures. Google has announced plans to appeal the decision, calling it unjustified and warning it could harm numerous European businesses. Meanwhile, the U.S. President has criticized the penalty and threatened retaliatory trade measures, escalating tensions between the U.S. and the EU.




CRYPTO MARKET

The crypto market remained relatively calm during the previous week. Investors were more concerned with surprisingly weak US jobs data, increasing expectations that the Fed might make a move in rate cuts at their September FOMC meeting. They were positioning accordingly, in which sense US equities, bond and gold markets were affected. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by modest 1% during the week, adding $28B to its total market cap. Daily trading volumes dropped to the level of $222B on a daily basis, from last week's $311B. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +16%, with a total funds inflow of $513B.

For the week, crypto coins showed mixed performance, with a blend of gains and losses across major and altcoins. BTC had steady movements, with a weekly gain of 1,4% and an inflow of $30,5B. This week, ETH was a modest losing side of -1,4% (-7,5B). Major altcoins on the market finished the week relatively flat. Market favorites Solana, ADA, XRP, BNB all finished the week almost without a change from the end of the previous week. Avalanche managed to add 3,3% to its market value. At the same time, Maker had an excellent week with a gain of 13,1%. Monero was traded higher by 4,4% and Filecoin was up by 2,7%. Another coin with a significant weekly gain was ZCash, with a surge of 11,3%.

Although the value of coins remained relatively flat, there has been increased activity with circulating coins. This week Stellar managed to add 1,1% new coins to the market. Miota`s number of coins closed the week higher by 0,8%. This week Filecoins added 0,2% to its total circulating coins. XRP should be also mentioned, as this coin continues to increase its number on the market, this week by 0,2%.



Crypto futures market

The crypto futures market showed some divergence from BTC and ETH price movements, following developments on the spot market. Bitcoin futures experienced consistent gains across all maturities, with w/w increases ranging around 2,7%. Futures with maturity in December this year closed the week at $114.205, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $121.000.

In contrast, ETH futures saw moderate declines across the board, with w/w changes around 0,4%. For the moment, the market is showing subdued expectations for ETH in the near to mid-term. However, ETH futures continue to hold strongly above the $4K mark. December 2025 finished the week at $4.435, while December 2026 was last traded at $4.780.

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