Downtrand is broaken, but the probability that capitalization will grow is not high.

1) On the lower timeframes oscillators are ready to go down.

2) The tendency to decrease volumes is stable.

S&P 500 hits new high a day after Fed rate cut - stock index trades above 5,700 for first time ever. When the price takes a new high, and on the RSI oscillator we see a decline that failed to beat the previous high - this is called a bearish divergence. One of the most powerful indicators in financial indicators. The previous time we touched this level were in 1999, 1956 and1929. There hasn't been an opportunity like this to go short in 25 years. A simple wave count shows that this is the beginning of wave C.

3) I see only one case in favor of BTC going to 80-100k - if the structure from November 2022 is an impulse, the formation from March 2024 to present is a triangle, so the last action wave could throw the price up for a month, after that a bear market will start.

My base case scenario is that we are in a primary ABC correction. Wave C is underway now, which is a running flat.


Nevertheless, my base scenario is this we in a primary ABC correction. Now is C wave, which is a Running flat.

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