Truncated 5th Wave Or Just A Retest Of Support?
Updated
Irregardless of direction im expecting expecting a 4-5% increase to test resistance above us.
If Rejected im looking for a -20% move from lows to retest the support.
What does that mean for bitcoin?
looking for a move to ~48-49k before hitting resistance.
If Bitcoin rejects at resistance i would be looking for a move down to 35-38k (Hard to calculate for in comparison to the total do to shifting dominance i the market).
If 35-38k fails to hold as support im saying the top is in and the bull run is over.
If 35-38k holds as support i think we may see alt confidence increase 10 fold.
Bearish confluence:
DXY broke out of a year long Falling wedge.
Bullish pattern, bearish for traditional markets and Cryptos.
(Chart linked below).
Bond 10 year yield is bullish:
Bearish indicator.
Interest rates starting to increase:
Bearish indicator.
Total 2 and the Total 3 double topped:
Bearish indicator.
BTC chart currently following a blow off top pattern following the hard rejection at the 53k level.
Blow off tops, generally speaking, have a bounce ~half the move from the top (65k) to the bottom (28.5k) of the structure.
65k - 28.5k = 36.5k / 2 = 18.25 + 28.5k = 46.75k / 53k = 88%
With quick maths above you can see that BTC over shot the blow off top target by 12% which isn't out of the feasible range of this pattern.
EW wise we may be looking at a Truncated 5th wave here:
Truncated fifth waves happen when the 5th wave doesn't extend above the 3rd wave, typically happens after having a really strong 3rd wave.
Following our top of 65k (End of wave 3) to our lows of 28.5k (End of wave 4) arguably we may have just seen the completion of wave 5 here with a top of 53K.
Due your own due diligence and take your moon boi helmet off.
Mitigate Risk.
Pull Profits.
Wait for confirmations.
At this point this is all speculation.
Follow the charts and watch for supports/ resistances and trade accordingly.
At this time i am optimistically bullish, but i would be a fool to not look at the possible downside.
As Always,
Good Luck And Safe Trading.
If Rejected im looking for a -20% move from lows to retest the support.
What does that mean for bitcoin?
looking for a move to ~48-49k before hitting resistance.
If Bitcoin rejects at resistance i would be looking for a move down to 35-38k (Hard to calculate for in comparison to the total do to shifting dominance i the market).
If 35-38k fails to hold as support im saying the top is in and the bull run is over.
If 35-38k holds as support i think we may see alt confidence increase 10 fold.
Bearish confluence:
DXY broke out of a year long Falling wedge.
Bullish pattern, bearish for traditional markets and Cryptos.
(Chart linked below).
Bond 10 year yield is bullish:
Bearish indicator.
Interest rates starting to increase:
Bearish indicator.
Total 2 and the Total 3 double topped:
Bearish indicator.
BTC chart currently following a blow off top pattern following the hard rejection at the 53k level.
Blow off tops, generally speaking, have a bounce ~half the move from the top (65k) to the bottom (28.5k) of the structure.
65k - 28.5k = 36.5k / 2 = 18.25 + 28.5k = 46.75k / 53k = 88%
With quick maths above you can see that BTC over shot the blow off top target by 12% which isn't out of the feasible range of this pattern.
EW wise we may be looking at a Truncated 5th wave here:
Truncated fifth waves happen when the 5th wave doesn't extend above the 3rd wave, typically happens after having a really strong 3rd wave.
Following our top of 65k (End of wave 3) to our lows of 28.5k (End of wave 4) arguably we may have just seen the completion of wave 5 here with a top of 53K.
Due your own due diligence and take your moon boi helmet off.
Mitigate Risk.
Pull Profits.
Wait for confirmations.
At this point this is all speculation.
Follow the charts and watch for supports/ resistances and trade accordingly.
At this time i am optimistically bullish, but i would be a fool to not look at the possible downside.
As Always,
Good Luck And Safe Trading.
Note
A short reflection on BTC miners comparing their profit margins between cycles:Back in 2017 the price to mine bitcoins was ~5k.
Bitcoin peaked that cycle at 20k
Miners were working with a spread of 15k profits per coin.
As well as a 4x on their initial investment.
Fast forwards to now.
After each halving rewards for each block are halved which in turn push the price to mine Bitcoin up to 10k (actually it's between 7-11k but for sake of easy understand I'm just going to say 10k).
At peak cycle of 65k miners were working with a spread of 55k profits.
As well as 6.5x on their initial investments.
2017:
5k cost/15k profit/4x on initial investment.
2021:
10k cost/55k profit/6.5x on initial investment.
So comparing 2017 and 2021.
Miners are taking twice the risk on investment.
Miners are making 3.66x more profits per coin.
Miners are making ~1.5x more off of their initial investment.
In my opinion if we head back up and break ATHs we may not go all to much higher do to miners dumper thier coins on the open market for what is arguably the most profitable time in history since the creation of Bitcoin.
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