Triveni Engineering: ₹73.05 Next resistance ₹85, STOP: ₹70

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Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd: ₹73.05 is turning up from a double bottom support,
the stock is in a highly oversold region and having a breakout from the trading range.
Next resistance ₹85, STOP: ₹70

Triveni is a sugar' stock but the fundamentals are not like that, it is having a huge debt burden.
The current performance is somewhat in an acceptable range with sales & profit growth.
Rated two stars out of Five

Market Cap.: ₹1,884.29 Cr .
Book Value: ₹23.38
Debt/equity 2.58 (Huge burden)
Stock P/E: 5.98
Dividend Yield: 0.00%
Face Value: ₹1.00
52 Week High/Low: ₹ 99.90 / ₹ 46.90
Return on capital employed: 3.49%
Number of equity shares: 25.79cr
EPS: ₹9.81
Expected quarterly EPS: ₹4.84 is a good sign.
Comment: To all my readers: I am getting ready for a short vacation for 3 weeks, and if time permits only I can make new posting in that period. But definitely will try to attend your intimation & reservations.
Thank you all
Yet another opportunity in triveni for a 30 to 40 % gain, Here again 85 price level will have resistance. stock can go to 100 and above. keep a strict stop at 73.
That looks something supper
Have a nice vacation..
Happy vacation sir
padiyaraa RaghuveerMunipalli
Do you suggest i buy tomorrow ? I'm confused
@rajkat, The entire posts and its message is totally meant to help the investor community, and I personally don't have any gain out of it.
it is quiet normal that few investors get confused with analysts and to take decisions. Doesn't matter. please read it again and notice few more points.

it is a sugar stock, and sugar industry overall is having a seasonal movement, also not performing well every time ,the post is added few more negatives like
HUGE DEBT burden in the company with poor fundamentals. And finally it is promising a 12% gain in short term. its technical also depicted very clearly.but
if you are asking for a testimony go back in to my previous posts and see that, like any other analyst ,I also have a fifty fity chance of success in predicting the things :D

Even after reading all that,if one is not able to take decision, then no one can help it & all those write up is futile.
it will be really a difficult situation, if every investor is seeking for a confirmation like this.

Before taking a decision for any investment we must ask few question to ourselves that , why we are investing in this scrip / or any other stock .

1) Do we expect a good movement in this stocks or industry?

2) what is our investment period?

3) what amount we are going to invest in this stock?

4) what return we are expecting?

5) what is the risk we are going to face?

If all the risk, reward, period, amount, industry and the stock etc is satisfactory to you, then go ahead.
Gain or loss, it is your money. Take care.
Trivikram padiyaraa
@padiyaraa, Today Triveni Engg closed just above SL although it breached SL during intraday. In this year, so far 4 times it was successful in recovering from 70 levels (68-70) in Jan/Feb/Mar/June. This is the 5th trial, will it be successful this time also? we will know the answer this Friday @3:30 PM or could be before too. Interesting to watch this scrip with Q1 results approx. one month away while expected quarterly EPS is close to 5/-.
padiyaraa Trivikram
@Trivikram, Thank God, some are born to sweet delight.

Make our own analysis is a very good approach in stock market investment.
I was also considering the projected EPS as a good sign.

Caution now: I am doing my best in analyzing the stock. I was expecting it to touch the next possible resistance 85 only .
it was not a big target for a sock like this in a bull market. it couldn't reach that level, but reach to a comparatively minor
resistance 80 below that, as a bounce from the support. That show the weakness of the stock and warn me a impeding fall
in near future. watch the TL break for that.

Trivikram padiyaraa
@padiyaraa, Have a happy vacation. Triveni was not only successful in recovering and hopefully it is getting ready to break the resistance @80/85 band and possibly it could happen with a gap-up and if successful then we can set our next target, I believe. There are at least 3 positive triggers for this scrip going ahead.

#1. SAP scrap by UP Govt. under process: While it would be highly positive for all up based sugar scrips, for Triveni it can take the scrip to next level as Management is ready to put fresh investments to increase the capacity/efficiency and the top line/bottom line at the same time. You may note that Triveni is one of the most efficient Sugar Mills in India already, if not the best.

#2. Q1 Results: As already discussed multiple times in this thread fantastic quarterly results are on the cards.

#3. Few Savvy investors are increasing their stake and it is very likely they will continue to do so. Whenever they increase their stake by half percent or so, Triveni will jump by 10% easily. Simple Reason being there are less than 50 million shares are held by short term investors/retailers and can be mopped up by big investors in no time.

Apart from all the above, the best thing is likely to happen to Triveni is that it is going to be debt free in the 6 to 12 months, leaving working capital needs. And also the outstanding orders book in the engineering segment is likely to touch 1K crore this year. And there are many more such points which we can discuss once the scrip crosses 80/85 levels.

Disclosure: Entered @70

Trivikram padiyaraa
@padiyaraa, Congratulations and please continue to serve the small investor community with these type of picks. Today it hit your target of 85 intraday. I am not a technical expert, but per me I see 88/90 levels coming soon for fundamental reasons. Disclosure: I am continuing to hold as I am not in hurry.
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