The market has had a lot going on lately. The S&P had lost almost 25% of its gains since the Oct '22 lows just to turn around and regain 61.8% of those losses. This is all within the scope of just over a month. To most this seems like chaos and is enough to get/keep many people out of the markets. To an Elliottician, this is simply price action, the result of an impulsive wave 1 down followed by a 3-move ABC pattern for the retrace(corrective). Take this recent decline in Tesla as an example. We hit my 1.618 line and turned around to head higher as I called for. We then proceeded to raise higher to hit my target box for (B), and how long have I had that same target box on my chart for?? Don't get me wrong, I can always be wrong, and this could be the start of a new bull run. However, from my vantage point...I'm not buying it (pun intended).
On to Tesla, it largely follows the NASDAQ. Sometimes even eerily closely. This can be an advantage though if you think about it. If you think the index is about to tank, and Tesla raise, then you better be damn confident in your count. Timing is everything though. Tesla is the perfect example of that. Right now, it is finished/finishing it's (B) wave which means we are about to fall hard for our (C) wave, along with the index's. After that I predict Tesla to raise with great strength to the $300's minimum, right when the NASDAQ is ready to start a wave 4 retrace. BTW, C waves are strong and impulsive which means we can expect a 5-wave move down into the target box of the lower graph. The lower box is assuming we have topped obviously.
The primary count on the micros seems to be complete for this wave 5. We tagged the 1.0 of the (a)-(b) waves up and came just shy of the 0.618 retracement fib from the main (A) wave. As long as we don't breach that 0.618 at ALL then this (B) is done. If we break that point then the 0.786 fib @ $278.10 starts to come into view. This isn't even bringing MACD into the mix though. As you notice, we have been on neg divergence since 11:30 CST yesterday morning. These are all indicators that we are about to head lower. All we need is a catalyst to trigger the move down...like maybe the DOJ/SEC investigating Musk for a glass house he is building/possible vehicle range issues....
In the below chart you will notice I have included a target for our C wave coming up. I expect this to hit the 1.0 @ $184.84. Sometimes C waves can tag the 1.618, but since we are still in a wave 3 & the fact that would invalidate this count, I find it unlikely. This C wave should last around 2-3 weeks or so. It could last longer, but B wave was about 2 weeks so I would expect C to follow suit. THIS NEXT TARGET IS ASSUMING WE HAVE TOPPED IN B AND ABOUT TO HEAD LOWER The higher we rise here in (B) the higher it raises the target for C of (2).
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
On to Tesla, it largely follows the NASDAQ. Sometimes even eerily closely. This can be an advantage though if you think about it. If you think the index is about to tank, and Tesla raise, then you better be damn confident in your count. Timing is everything though. Tesla is the perfect example of that. Right now, it is finished/finishing it's (B) wave which means we are about to fall hard for our (C) wave, along with the index's. After that I predict Tesla to raise with great strength to the $300's minimum, right when the NASDAQ is ready to start a wave 4 retrace. BTW, C waves are strong and impulsive which means we can expect a 5-wave move down into the target box of the lower graph. The lower box is assuming we have topped obviously.
The primary count on the micros seems to be complete for this wave 5. We tagged the 1.0 of the (a)-(b) waves up and came just shy of the 0.618 retracement fib from the main (A) wave. As long as we don't breach that 0.618 at ALL then this (B) is done. If we break that point then the 0.786 fib @ $278.10 starts to come into view. This isn't even bringing MACD into the mix though. As you notice, we have been on neg divergence since 11:30 CST yesterday morning. These are all indicators that we are about to head lower. All we need is a catalyst to trigger the move down...like maybe the DOJ/SEC investigating Musk for a glass house he is building/possible vehicle range issues....
In the below chart you will notice I have included a target for our C wave coming up. I expect this to hit the 1.0 @ $184.84. Sometimes C waves can tag the 1.618, but since we are still in a wave 3 & the fact that would invalidate this count, I find it unlikely. This C wave should last around 2-3 weeks or so. It could last longer, but B wave was about 2 weeks so I would expect C to follow suit. THIS NEXT TARGET IS ASSUMING WE HAVE TOPPED IN B AND ABOUT TO HEAD LOWER The higher we rise here in (B) the higher it raises the target for C of (2).
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Comment:
We may get OMH but I would be surprised if we breach the 0.618. I'm no fortune teller, but this thing along with the index's look cooked.
Comment:
If we have topped this is what I'm looking for.
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Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
