"Don’t Delude Yourself": Elon Musk's Harsh Advice For TeslaBulls
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"Don’t delude yourself into thinking something’s working when it’s not, or you’re gonna get fixated on a bad solution." This stark warning from Elon Musk serves as a poignant reminder not just for his ventures but for investors and enthusiasts following Tesla. The allure of Tesla’s innovative spirit and its groundbreaking promises in self-driving technology and robotics has captured imaginations and driven its stock to impressive highs. However, a critical examination suggests that the company’s current trajectory might not be as promising as the stock prices suggest.
Firstly, Tesla's ambitious Full Self-Driving (FSD) capability continues to be a work in progress, much like the early days of a start-up experimenting in uncharted territories—not the polished product one might expect from a company valued as highly as Tesla. Despite years of development, Tesla remains significantly behind industry leaders like Waymo in terms of true autonomous driving technologies. Waymo, with its laser-focused approach on autonomy and years of extensive testing and data, has clearly established a substantial lead. Betting on Tesla catching up soon is more a gamble than a sound investment strategy.
Moreover, there is a significant cultural and political aspect to consider. The idea that conservative segments of the market, often characterized stereotypically as rednecks and Republicans, will suddenly pivot and embrace Tesla en masse is far-fetched. Market penetration into these demographics involves more than just offering a compelling product; it requires aligning with broader lifestyle choices and values, areas where Tesla has not traditionally held sway.
The optimism surrounding Tesla's AI robot, Optimus, also requires tempering. In its current form, Optimus is not poised to revolutionize the industry. Competitors are already showcasing more advanced and practical applications of robotics that overshadow Tesla’s attempts. The robot’s performance has not been encouraging, and banking on it to become a market leader is optimistic at best.
Considering these elements, Tesla's vision of dominating the robotaxi market appears overly ambitious. The technological lag, combined with regulatory hurdles and public skepticism, adds layers of uncertainty to this goal. With predictions like a less than 25% chance of Tesla launching its Cybercab before 2030, the company's future in this arena seems precarious.
Given these factors, it's an opportune moment for savvy investors to reflect on the wisdom of Bill Gates, who is reportedly shorting Tesla stock. The disparity between Tesla’s market valuation and its actual progress in critical areas suggests that the stock might be poised for a significant correction. Investors might do well to consider whether Tesla, at its current valuation, truly reflects its intrinsic worth or if it is, as Musk warns, a fixation on a "bad solution."
While Tesla undoubtedly continues to innovate and push boundaries in many areas, the pragmatic approach would be to prepare for a potential downturn in its stock value, possibly back to around $200. This would more accurately reflect the company's current state in the competitive landscape and its technological advancements, or lack thereof. As always, the key to successful investing is to see through the hype and base decisions on solid, realistic assessments of technology and market trends.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.