TSLA: Fundamentals Are Collapsing While Valuation Stays in Orbit

Oct 21

Tesla is trading near multi-month highs… but the fundamentals tell a very different story.
EPS has dropped by 50%, revenue growth has almost stalled, and yet the stock still carries a Forward P/E of 164.

This combination — slowing growth and extreme valuation — looks like the definition of an institutional bubble setup.

🧮 Fundamental Context


Over the past few years, Tesla’s growth has slowed dramatically:

Revenue rose from 31B → 53B → 81B → 96B → 97B — barely any increase.

EPS climbed from 0.2 → 1.6 → 3.6 → 4.3 — and then fell by half.

Quarter-over-quarter metrics remain negative, with no visible recovery trend.

Meanwhile, the Forward P/E of 164 implies double-digit expansion ahead — which clearly isn’t happening.
The fundamentals simply do not justify this kind of valuation.
Right now, Tesla’s numbers resemble the early phase of a valuation compression cycle — where prices eventually catch up with reality.

📉 Technical Structure

Technically, Tesla has been moving in a broad sideways range, forming what looks like a long-term Wave 4 structure.
We’re currently inside the “B” leg, which could already be complete or near completion.
Once that wave ends, the next expected move is a Wave C decline.

Key levels to watch:

📍 Upper resistance zone: $400 – $550

📍 Primary cluster: around $250

📍 Support zone: $150 – $200

The chart shows clear volume concentration around $250 — once that level breaks, the next liquidity pocket sits between $150 and $200.
That’s where a potential bottoming cluster could form before the final upward leg.

⚠️ Market Outlook

While other FANG names maintain solid balance sheets and stable earnings, Tesla’s fundamentals are deteriorating sharply.
Yes, the stock may still see short-term pumps driven by sentiment or Musk’s fan base — but markets always return to fundamentals.
And those fundamentals are pointing downward.

📊 Summary

EPS and revenue both trending lower 📉

Forward P/E at 164 — completely disconnected from growth metrics

Technical range suggests potential decline toward $200–$150

Current price action likely part of a larger corrective structure

Long-term investors should exercise extreme caution ⚠️

Tesla isn’t a short-term “growth story” anymore — it’s a valuation risk story.
Until earnings stabilize and margins recover, this stock looks massively overpriced.

Nov 22

Trade active

Since my October post, nothing important has changed in the larger structure. The correction I expected has already started, and the price action fits the scenario I outlined earlier. My main view is still intact: Tesla remains in a broader corrective cycle, both fundamentally and technically.

In the short term, I expect the first support zone to appear around 300 to 350. A local bounce from this area looks likely. After that, the next move could target the 200 to 250 region. This is where the structure may form a deeper consolidation before the final phase of the correction.

A final seller capitulation remains possible near the 150 area. A reversal from that zone would complete the long term corrective pattern. From there, the next major leg up could begin, with a move above the current high and a possible target in the 500 plus range.

This is a longer term scenario with a time horizon of 6 to 12 months. My view has not changed since October.