Fear and Loathing at the Long End?

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Sovereign bond rates have steadily crept higher since the pandemic, and some traders may worry about further upward pressure in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield.

The first pattern on today’s weekly chart is the double bottom at roughly 3.95 percent in December 2023 and September 2024.

Second, TYX bounced around 4.3 percent in December 2024 and March 2025.

That pair of double bottoms at successively higher levels may suggest an uptrend is taking shape.

Next, a surge happened as the Federal Reserve initiated rate cuts last year. With more easing expected next month, could markets react in a similar fashion?

Finally, you have the series of higher lows since early April. Yields have simultaneously pushed against the psychologically important 5 percent level. The resulting ascending triangle is a potential upside continuation pattern.

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