10-year Gilts 1-day classic patterns
Updated
Q: What has the highest probability of occurring?
Since early July there have been 4 tests of 132.000 resistance.
There is a combination of 2 classic patterns forming at resistance.
The double top, where both tops have been rejected at 132.000, is currently valid.
The head and shoulders, the head consisting of the double top, would need to break the neckline ~129.750 to become valid.
Both patterns equally project 128.250 as the target.
Objectively looking at the entire base beginning around the high volume bar in February it is curve-like. Looking to the weekly timeframe it is quite possible this is the formation of a cup with the handle to follow.
So there is some conflict in this area which can lead to a large number of market participants getting it wrong and as a consequence more momentum. It is quite probable that market participants have already shorted the double top breakout. Waiting for the head and shoulders to confirm with an ~129.750 neckline breakout before entry is advantageous. Stop placement above what appears to be a right shoulder at ~130.750 yields a 1.5R target.
It would also be beneficial to visualise the 1-week handle as a means of guarding against the 1-day head and shoulder pattern failure.
Since early July there have been 4 tests of 132.000 resistance.
There is a combination of 2 classic patterns forming at resistance.
The double top, where both tops have been rejected at 132.000, is currently valid.
The head and shoulders, the head consisting of the double top, would need to break the neckline ~129.750 to become valid.
Both patterns equally project 128.250 as the target.
Objectively looking at the entire base beginning around the high volume bar in February it is curve-like. Looking to the weekly timeframe it is quite possible this is the formation of a cup with the handle to follow.
So there is some conflict in this area which can lead to a large number of market participants getting it wrong and as a consequence more momentum. It is quite probable that market participants have already shorted the double top breakout. Waiting for the head and shoulders to confirm with an ~129.750 neckline breakout before entry is advantageous. Stop placement above what appears to be a right shoulder at ~130.750 yields a 1.5R target.
It would also be beneficial to visualise the 1-week handle as a means of guarding against the 1-day head and shoulder pattern failure.
Trade active
Short entry triggered at 129.750Stop placement at 130.750
Target at 128.250
Looking for momentum behind the selling but also mindful of the handle forming on the 1-week chart period.
Trade closed: target reached
Thereabout.
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