Recession Risks and Market Caution
In July 2022, we saw the yield curve (US 10-year Treasury vs the US 2-year Treasury) go negative. It’s been in that zone ever since, and now, as we approach the two-year mark, we’re on the brink of positive territory.
An inverted yield curve has a well-documented history of signalling recession. When you factor in the PMI readings dropping below 50, rising unemployment rates, and NASDAQ already in correction mode with a 10% drop from its peak, the message is clear.
So, what’s the takeaway? The indicators are pointing towards a potential recession and bear market. It’s wise to proceed with caution as these signals suggest we might be heading into choppy waters.
An inverted yield curve has a well-documented history of signalling recession. When you factor in the PMI readings dropping below 50, rising unemployment rates, and NASDAQ already in correction mode with a 10% drop from its peak, the message is clear.
So, what’s the takeaway? The indicators are pointing towards a potential recession and bear market. It’s wise to proceed with caution as these signals suggest we might be heading into choppy waters.
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