ARE YOU READY FOR NFP? US30, NAS, SP500 IN DEPTH LOOK
Updated
Tomorrow is the BLS round of this weeks jobs reports, NFP. So far we have seen lower than previously reported ADP NFP numbers, and higher unemployment numbers than previously reported. I would have to assume a lower than expected and previously reported NFP report for tomorrow.
This may be considered bullish news in accordance with the Fed Agenda to slow the economy down and also support the narrative that the feds will pivot to a rate cut in the near future as this signals their rates are becoming restrictive.
Look for pre-NFP for us30 to fall to levels of interest below and establish support, potentially 35900s and push back to the 36200 area should we see bullish NFP news.
Similar scenarios are laid out for Nas, and SP500.
In addition, if NFP news is bullish and we get a bullish Friday situation, I expect this to be short lived as the daily Timeframe is clearly exhausted and in need of a retracement to establish support.
Please view the 3 possibilities I view for US30:
Possibility 1: Pre-NFP retracement as per 1 hour timeframe range to 35950 and movement to 36200 at NFP release.
Possibility 2: Liquidity grab pre-NFP and at NFP to level of interest above (circa 36400) before a retrace back to support
Possibility 3: Bearish or conflicting NFP report tomorrow in respect to already bullish jobs data given this week. We fall to daily support levels at 35700 and break and retest to start a further downtrend and correction before next weeks inflation reports.
This may be considered bullish news in accordance with the Fed Agenda to slow the economy down and also support the narrative that the feds will pivot to a rate cut in the near future as this signals their rates are becoming restrictive.
Look for pre-NFP for us30 to fall to levels of interest below and establish support, potentially 35900s and push back to the 36200 area should we see bullish NFP news.
Similar scenarios are laid out for Nas, and SP500.
In addition, if NFP news is bullish and we get a bullish Friday situation, I expect this to be short lived as the daily Timeframe is clearly exhausted and in need of a retracement to establish support.
Please view the 3 possibilities I view for US30:
Possibility 1: Pre-NFP retracement as per 1 hour timeframe range to 35950 and movement to 36200 at NFP release.
Possibility 2: Liquidity grab pre-NFP and at NFP to level of interest above (circa 36400) before a retrace back to support
Possibility 3: Bearish or conflicting NFP report tomorrow in respect to already bullish jobs data given this week. We fall to daily support levels at 35700 and break and retest to start a further downtrend and correction before next weeks inflation reports.
Note
I am personally favoring long positions tomorrow if NFP news is bullish but ready to short the market as the daily trend is becoming exhausted.
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