Bubble of 2020 will burst by April 2021!

Dec 11, 2020

All governments globally have been generous in providing decent amount of stimulus to their respective countries as compared to their GDP's. What makes me wonder is that even after such huge amount of stimulus many countries have shown flat GDP growth or economic contraction. What if these stimulus were not provided at first place? The economies and the global markets would die out of lack of liquidity. The stimulus just acted like a ventilator for dead global economies. The scary part is the recovery rally that we witnessed after 23rd March 2020 (bottom of crash) is actually a bubble as stock prices have increased whereas earnings of many stocks are still away from their previous highs resulting in crazy P/E ratios on index (i have never witnessed a PE ratio of 34 on Indian markets). This bubble shall burst as on ground in practical life consumer spending is less and many small businesses have shut down. Banks are at a huge risk of default (worst then 2007-2008). The interest rates are cheap and people are buying automobiles on huge loans out of their affordability. Things will start spiraling down to reality as central banks will increase interest rates soon and consumer spending through loans will also go down. Financially, next decade will be challenging. We will see another market crash by 12th April 2021 (max). The bull rally is short lived!