Publishing, hoping for feedback before Monday

Apr 30, 2022

I have no idea where it's going. I have been trading only this pair since I started trading in November of 2020. Something odd happened on April 20th, the swap fees for the pair were essentially reversed. Instead of receiving a credit on the fee for holding USD, I started to get charged for long holds. This is where I'm hoping for some feedback. My thinking is that since the reverse in swap fees, the USD has essentially gone straight up, it still has not broke the resistance at 1.29580 that it's held since December of 2020. I think that the big players are collecting sells, since the fees on holding have switched, and the BOC is being more Hawkish than the Fed (overnight rates are higher and BOC prediction of .5 to 1% increase in June), they are switching all their held longs for shorts. I can't see any other reason for the quick increase in USD. Plus the Canadian economy is doing better than the US economy with jobs and Canada being a commodity linked currency, I think it's going to be a strong shot down. Inflation is also less in Canada, still high at 6.8%, but that translates to a real increase of the difference in the purchasing power between the two currencies. GDP numbers for Canada that came out today are stronger than anticipated. It doesn't make any sense for USD to shoot up, other than my "conspiracy" theory of big players collecting sells.

So just some thoughts about all this from other people would be appreciated.