2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 56 (0.466 BTC)

Feb 26, 2019

Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge

It looks like we are finally getting some volatility and this is very exciting. In order for me to succeed with this challenge I need a big trend that I am able to enter into early in the game. The chop that has occurred over the last two months has been very difficult to trade.

If USDTRY can resume it’s bullish trend then it is game on. I am ready to bet big on this one, but as always will be starting small. The 4h chart recently had a red 9 at support and that was a good opportunity for me to start building a position.

Next I am watching for a golden cross with the 50 and 200 EMA’s. After that I will be watching for the same golden cross but on the Daily. If that goes as expected then I will be building a long position of ~10 BTC.

If all goes according to plan and then my most conservative target gets hit I will be back in the green for this challenge. The chances of that happening are realistic but not necessarily to be expected. As long as I continue to diligently manage risk and wait for ideal entries then I am confident I can get this challenge going in the right direction in the allotted time frame.

The crypto markets are also very interested for the first time in months. It is right on the verge of making a big move as far as I can tell. To learn more about what I am watching for see the Watchtower below as well as the 335th day of the Bitcoin Daily Update.

Open Positions

Exposure: 0.14 lots (3.66 BTC)
Long USDTRY
Enter: $5.3107
Stop: $5.236
Risk: 1.39%



Watchtower


USDTRY

Notes: Price getting squeeze in between 50 & 200 EMA’s on 4h and D.

Gameplan: Add if 4h GC. Add on D GC if not too far away from price. Close > $5.56 is another signal to add

Target: $6.55 (ATH Retest) & $8.00 (Big W Target)

ETHBTC

Patterns: Descending triangle.

Notes: Getting squeezed between 50 & 200 D EMA’s with beautiful cupping pattern

Target: 0.07 if break triangle to upside

Gameplan: Waiting to see how market reacts to Hard Fork. The technicals are very bullish, but Hard Forks are generally a sell. This might be different since there is no alt token being created.


ETHUSD

Notes: First bullish crossover with 4 & 9 week EMA’s since April 23, 18. Only the 2nd since Feb 2017.

Gameplan: Same as above

LTCBTC

Notes: Weekly golden cross with price above 200 W EMA.

Gameplan: If BTC can close a daily above $3,922 then I will be looking for longs. Will enter on LTC if ETH hard fork hasn’t happened yet.

Feb 28, 2019

Note

Added to USDTRY Long
Added Exposure: 0.18 lots (4.73 BTC)
Enter: $5.3305
Stop:$5.274
Risk: 1.05%

Mar 1, 2019

Note

Long XBTM19
Exposure: $5,500 (1.44 BTC)
Enter: $3,796
Stop: $3,674
Risk: 3.21%

Long ETHUSD
Exposure: 35 ETH (1.28 BTC)
Enter: $135.63
Stop: $129.80
Risk: 4.29%

Long ETHBTC (ETHH19)
Exposure: 10 ETH (0.356 BTC)
Enter: 0.03563
Stop: 0.03308
Risk: 7.15%

Mar 2, 2019

Note

Stopped out of ETHUSD long

Exposure: 9,500 contracts (1.24 BTC)
Enter: $135.70
Stop: $129.8
PnL: -0.0633 BTC
ROI: -5.10%

Trading Challenge Bankroll = 0.4001 BTC

Mar 4, 2019

Note

Stopped out of Bitcoin long

Long XBTM19
Exposure: 1.45 BTC
Enter: $3,796
Stop: $3,649
PnL: -0.0608 BTC
ROI: -4.19%

Trading Challenge Bankroll = 0.3406 BTC

Mar 11, 2019

Note

Entered ETHUSD Long
Exposure: 9.77 ETH / 0.3378 BTC
Enter: $135.20
Stop: $127.35
Risk: 5.84%

Stop Order Entered to add to ETHUSD long
Amount: 14.6 ETH / 0.5068 BTC
Enter: $141.55
Stop: $127.45
Risk: 9.96%

Mar 14, 2019

Note

Stopped Out of ETHUSD Long

Exposure: 9.77 ETH / 0.3378 BTC
PnL: -0.0197 BTC
ROI: -5.83%

Mar 14, 2019

Note

Manually Closed ETHH19 Long, mainly due to ETHUSD longs being creating new ATH with shorts at support. A number of other indicators are also turning bearish.

Exposure: 10 ETH / 0.346 BTC
Enter: 0.03563
Exit: 0.03424
PnL: -0.0156 BTC
ROI: -4.5%

Mar 26, 2019

Note

Stopped out of USDTRY long at $5.39. Entry was around $5.33 but fees got very expensive and I ended up with a small loss. Was really not expected price to retrace all of Friday's candle and that is where I moved my stops to. Will be interesting to see how this develops.

Bankroll for Trading Challenge = 0.2647 BTC

Apr 1, 2019

Note

Entered long on Nasdaq 100

Exposure: 0.1 lots / 1.821 BTC
Enter: $7,472
Stop: $7,242
Risk: 3.07%

Apr 2, 2019

Note

Entered long on USDTRY

Exposure: 0.03 lots / 0.621 BTC
Enter: $5.623
Stop: $5.395
Risk: 4.02%

Apr 8, 2019

Note

Entered long on BTCUSD

Exposure: 0.5276 BTC
Enter: $5,190
Stop: $5,073
RIsk: 2.25%

Apr 9, 2019

Note

Entered short on USOIL

Exposure: 1.5 lots / 1.85 BTC
Enter: $64.16
Stop: $64.76
Risk: 0.98%

Apr 13, 2019

Note

Exited BTC long and USOIL short. Entered long on LTCBTC

Exposure: 25 LTC / 0.388 BTC
Enter: 0.01555
Stop: 0.01424
Risk: 8.42%

Apr 30, 2019

Note

Entered S&P 500 Long

Exposure: 0.08 lots (4.55 BTC)
Enter: $2,931.25
Stop: $2,919 & $2,909
Risk: 0.61%

Jul 3, 2019

Note

The challenge concluded on 6/30/19 and it dismays me to say that I failed : ( When I started this challenge I knew it would be very difficult, but also possible. That is because I completed a similar challenge in 2018. Unfortunately 2019 did not start out as I had intended. I was short the S&P, long Gold and getting whipped around by BTC. I am not making excuses but I am saying that some markets are much harder to trade than others. I focus on Bitcoin, Gold as well as the S&P. All of those markets were a complete nightmare during the first half of 2019 based on how I trade. Unsurprisingly I ended a net loser during that time.

I had one last hail mary with a large long (relative to my trading roll) on USDTRY and I got shaken out on March 26th when Erdogan and the Turkish central bank put restrictions on how much Lira would be lent to the FOREX market for shorting purposes. This sent the interest rates through the roof and turned many a profitable positions into losers in the blink of an eye. This liquidated some and caused others to cover in a panic (I was the latter). After that position was closed the roll for this trading challenge was down to less than 0.5 BTC. At that point I did not feel very confident about completing the challenge.

From there my main focus was to rebuild my initial roll. If I could go from ~ 0.2 BTC back to 2 BTC then it would provide a consolidation prize for failing the challenge. I proceeded to get whipped around by BTC in the $3,200 - $4,000 range despite being quite bullish. By the end of April I saw very little chance in redeeming myself and I essentially admitted defeat. In my mind there is a huge difference between quitting and admitting defeat. I tried my absolute hardest to complete this challenge until it became apparent that I would not be able to. At that time I had many other things to prioritize (wrote book on Hyperwaves with Tyler Jenks, and then joined the Lucid Investment team full time).

When other opportunities presented themselves I was forced to evaluate my priorities. Focus on my time energy on redeeming my trading challenge or focus on establishing a partnership with one of the best money managers of this generation. Needless to same my decision was an easy one. Now I am a full time employee of Lucid as well as having an equity partnership. Furthermore I am on a fast track to become a senior portfolio manager and potentially even the Chief Investment Officer.

Failures (2 BTC to 20 BTC Challenge) often leads to evolutions (partnering with Lucid Investment). That is especially true if you focus on being antifragile as defined by Nassim Taleb. In conclusion I am very frustrated that I failed at this challenge, and I fully intend to redeem myself at some point in the future, however I will always be proud of my willingness to put myself out there and learn from the mistakes that I make along the way.