OIL & OPEC Cuts

Updated

OPEC cuts lead to lower oil, not higher oil prices. That is why they are cutting. If Global demand was there they would not be cutting they would be selling as much as they can at higher prices.

I see too many people get this backward.

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Saudi Arabia will cut oil production by an additional 1 million barrels per day in July.

This proves my point. This is the 3rd OPEC cut.

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As expected after 3rd OPEC cut announced oil closes down $71.84.

But some say this is not "educational".

Lines on a chart crossing giving buys and sells losing people money is educational. 🤣👌

UNREAL!

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3rd OPEC cut & oil $70.61.

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3 days after OPEC announced cuts here is what is happening in the price of OIL.

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OIL Break $70

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OIL hitting $67 this morning after the 3rd OPEC cut was announced.

Not educational?? SIGH!

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OPEC+ production cuts were announced in

Oct. 22,
Apr. 23,
and Jun. 23.

Oil prices fell on each occasion. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and over and expecting a different outcome each time.

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I always find it amusing being the bad guy to some for being right.

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El-Erian

"Oil prices have moved higher in response to the announcement from Saudi Arabia that it will maintain its voluntary (1 mbd) cut through September and that this could be both "extended" and "deepened.""

Well! The Saudis see no end in sight for decreasing demand.
Even if prices increased for some odd reason I am sure the increased inflation and interest rates will help consumers and companies to run out and consume more oil.

NOT!

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BUT BUT BUT The House of SAUD and OPEC Cut supply!?!? Was oil not supposed to trade higher?

As I have been telling you now since June cuts signal weakness in Oil Prices. It's NOT bullish!

Unfortunately, the "educational" part was removed from this post by a certain someone who didn't understand that it IS educational. I am simply doing it live not magic hindsight B.S. adding a cute story after the fact and claiming this is "educational."

A very poor choice that someone made in my view.

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New low. Surprised? You shouldn't be.

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Bigger Picture on USOil.

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OPEC SAYS ITS OIL OUTPUT ROSE BY 113,000 BPD TO 27.45 MILLION BPD IN AUGUST LED BY INCREASES FROM IRAN, NIGERIA

Lol so much for OPEC "cuts."

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Here is a good example of why you should be your own analyst.

Oil has been range-bound for about a year. Oil only started to push higher a whole 7% just 2 weeks ago and yet everyone is blaming the rise in inflation on oil. LOL!

Let me take you back to a time when oil was $150 and inflation was nonexistent. But at $89 it is. LOL

If we inflation adjust oil back to 2008 $89 is more like $70 oil today not even close to $150.

Now let's travel back in time to when Oil traded sub-zero? The answer is no, it didn't.

Simple minds want simple answers. Narratives to fool the masses.

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Oil topping out. $3 above the first OPEC cut, and 8% above where it closed in Dec 2022 where it acted as resistance.

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Great example of a rising wedge (within the bigger channel) that breaks, makes a higher high, and then falls and breaks the entire channel.

Currently, Oil is testing previous highs up 12% from the previous high breakout and 6% above the 1st OPEC cut from a year ago (Oct. 22, 2022)

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MAGIC!

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Oil $89

Magic!

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Oil is about to break $86. CRACK!

Magic!

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3 OPEC cuts
Plus extension
Over a year

and still, oil is at $84 and change. When I first posted this it was also included in EDUCATIONAL because people have been making the same mistake for decades thinking that Oil Cuts are bullish. Unlike other "experts" who wait till hindsight to tell you what happened. I posted it BEFORE it happened which is much more powerful. Learn from this.

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Here is the Big Picture. MAGIC!

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Oil continues its collapse now down $83.40 as expexted.

MAGIC!

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Oil 82.48 continues to crash as expected exactly as I drew it on the chart back on Sept. 27, 2023.

MAGIC!

Once again OPEC cuts signal weaker Global demand and should not be bought thinking "lower supply = higher prices". This is wrong thinking and as you can see since I posted this EDUCATIONAL chart oil has done nothing other than the garden variety fluctuations of price.

Now if you think OPEC is wrong based on macroeconomic understanding and analysis. then that's a different story. However, most retail investors just read some silly reports on social media, and off they go running with lower supply = higher price which is obviously wrong.

Just like all the fools who bought BTC at $64,000 and were told to buy more all the way down to $15,000 or the MEME GME "experts" who suffered massive losses thinking they would beat the man.

Learn how to do your own analysis and stop listening to "experts" on social media who have no skin in the game always telling you to buy what they are selling.

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Saudi Arabia, other Arab states reaffirm commitment to voluntary oil production adjustments.

August they extended OPEC cuts
Oct they reaffirm the cuts will continue.
Not even war in the middle east could get oil explode higher.

Once again proving what I have said all along, Global demand for oil is weak. That's what OPEC cuts mean.

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US Oil prices crash below $84 now down almost -$4 from the Isreali War broke out. A lot of proper puking it up bc they ran out to buy oil thinking a war would have an impact on oil not realizing OPEC has already told us there is insufficient demand globally to increase output.

Then they wonder why they are not successful trading and investing. SIGH!!

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When a War in the Middle East can't get your oil going.....
$82.82

Stop pretending you are doing research reading silly EIA reports and just let OPEC do the talking.

This is not "educational" LOL!

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For people who dont know Lebanon has been hyperinflating. There are a lot of people in despair and going to bed hungry everynight. With little money they can find enough desperate young men to go to war for themselves or their family.

If Isreal suffers large casualties in their counterstrike in Gaza, Hezbollah will smell blood in the water and likely attack too. That escalation will send oil skyrocketing.

Be cautious⚠️

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BREAKING: Oil prices up over 2.5%+ on rising Middle East tensions.

Remember my post yesterday?

MAGIC!!

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How is the OPEC cutting supply thing coming along? Not even a war in the Middle East can push prices higher,

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Oil Continues to knife lower today. Despite 3 OPEC cuts and two wars.

I will mention it again, when I first published this chart I marked it as educational. The powers that be removed it as such. Why? Ignorance. The powers that be could not possibly fathom that OPEC cuts were not bullish. A common mistake.

Life (like in trading) first gives the test and then the lesson.

One only needs to learn the lesson once if they are smart enough. If they are really smart they will learn from others who have walked down that path before and avoid the pitfalls.

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How are the OPEC+ cuts coming along???

Do you still think this was not educational?

Do you still think OPEC+ cuts mean higher oil prices? Despite two ongoing wars?

Oil $73.40

Life (like in trading) first gives the test and then the lesson.

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BREAKING: Reuters reports that OPEC+ is looking at possibly deepening oil production cuts. LOL! Do you still OPEC cuts lead to higher Oil prices???

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How are the OPEC+ oil cuts coming along?

giphy.com/gifs/moodman-McsNw88dsArrNk0srb/fullscreen

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OIL breaks below $70 as expected. $69.60

more OPEC cuts lower the price of oil. But this is not educational they told me.

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It has been a while since I posted an update on this chart. Again OPEC cuts do NOT mean bullish for OIL. Not even a war in the Middle East push up prices and hold them there.

Here is what I said in my initial post.

"OPEC cuts lead to lower oil, not higher oil prices. That is why they are cutting. If Global demand was there they would not be cutting they would be selling as much as they can at higher prices.

I see too many people get this backward."

Here we are more than a year later and the results are very clear. Unfortunately, this post was removed from educational by a moderator who does not understand how and why this works.

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After an attack by the US in Yemen (The 3rd war that is ongoing) Oil trades at $72. So much for buying oil bc OPEC+ is cutting production.

As I said in my first post back on June 1st, 2023 OPEC cuts are NOT bullish for oil. Also, remember this post was removed from the EDUCATIONAL section by an admin. What a shame! More people could have learned a great lesson in real-time.

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It has been almost a year since I posted this call saying do NOT buy oil because of OPEC oil cuts. Despite all the unforeseen circumstances my call remains as solid as the day I posted it.

That is the power of BKC and macroeconomic understanding.

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OIL continues to sell off as expected. I would not be interested in this until price falls below $70

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Remember how all those OPEC cuts were supposed to make Oil prices rise and I said no it has the complete opposite effect? Am I a dick now for telling you I told you so? No I am not. Someone has to teach you the lesson. Like it or not you will learn it either by listening to me or life will teach it to you and it will be way more expensive lesson you will have to pay to learn it.

RealMacro

Real Macro Economic Investing
patreon.com/Realmacro

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