Oil Trade Analysis

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📊 NFX USOIL Oil Trade Analysis

USOIL is currently trading at a critical resistance zone around $64.200. With no strong fundamentals to back the current bullish momentum, this move looks short-lived given the broader macroeconomic outlook (as discussed in our last WMA session).

🔀 Two key paths ahead:

Path A – Bearish Rejection🔻(Most Probable)
Price faces rejection at current SR zone.
Confluence with the 200-day SMA, which has acted as strong resistance for some time.
Likely scenario: sharp retracement downwards.

Path B – Liquidity Grab 🔸
Price breaks above the 200-day SMA and SR zone.
Pushes higher towards the next resistance at 65 (38.2% Fib level).
Expected to be a fakeout/liquidity grab before a heavy bearish drop.

📅 Market Movers to Watch Tomorrow:

  1. FOMC Statement
  2. USOil Inventory Report
  3. Fed Rate Cut Decision


⚖️ Personally, I lean strongly towards Path A (bearish rejection🔻), but I’ll be waiting for confirmation before entering. News tomorrow will be the key catalyst.

💬 What’s your outlook? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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