16-HOUR/DAY CONTINUOUS GOLD FORECAST, PPI 50 PT CROOKED M BANGER for FX_IDC:XAUUSD by Binary_Forecasting_Service

16-HOUR/DAY CONTINUOUS GOLD FORECAST, PPI 50 PT CROOKED M BANGER

Intro - This is Binary Forecasting Service's CONTINUOUS GOLD FORECAST featuring 16 to 20 hours a day around-the-clock coverage of FX_IDC: XAUUSD ticker, with current favorite outcome highly detailed in proprietary trend maps through all of NY market tomorrow. This data must be used with continuous updates to remain relevant until it is replaced. Using this without staying updated is dangerous. If you can't follow the updates, it is highly recommended that you DO NOT USE THIS. You have been warned.

Details - In chart above, YELLOW water mark was original favorite from Saturday draft. LIGHT BLUE was favorite a 4 hours ago. This bump to break the bold line here did not materiaze and I said:

1) I know it's going to break
2) 2375 is still going to hit
3) it's just the details of the "M' top (which now looks like a crooked M)
4) if price moves under 36 and stays there, I'm going to stop mapping it

Why stop? Because the trend engine starts producing huge zigzags that are really ugly looking and look nothing like "normal price action". Of these rolling outcomes, DARK BLUE is outright favorite with no visible second or third place. In chart above, there are four boxes. The first one is the most important one because BFS trend engine says there's only one outcome here, and it should hit all four boxes. In the case that trend engine is wrong and PRICE HOLDS BOLD TREND LINE FOLLOWING BOLD ARROW, be extremely careful with shorts BECAUSE VERTICAL REVERSAL IS ALWAYS 50% OR HIGHER because price is "so out of position".

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IN THE VERY UNLIKELY SCENARIO THAT PRICE FOLLOWS BOLD ARROW TO 2328 & LOWER:
1) then the expected result i would be a lower spike
2) that looks like dark blue "shifted down w/o sharp top"
3) and stop where the dashed line is like this:

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4) so hitting 2 OF 3 remaining boxes
5) I find this very very unlikely
6) but I also did n't expect the response at 36 WAS TO STAY THERE UNTIL CLOSE
7) that situation is already an outlier
8) therefore if we get one more outlier, it should look like black

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9) and to go full circle because I'm annoyed AF:

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6:39 PM, And I really don't expect ANY VOL FOR NEXT 9 hours
a) price is being compressed BOTH DIRECTIONS
b) down by short term sellers
c) but UP by medium-long buyers
d) and they are compressing THIS BOX FOR NEXT 9 HOURS
e) so unless I see something worth talking about
f) have a good night

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7:51 38.xx
a) we need to break that line
b) check it
c) get above 42.5
d) otherwise nothing to talik about

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e) it's basically 8 PM ET
f) I think price may take 8-9 hours to do that

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11:02 PM 2342.5 7 HOURS EARLY, HOLD ON:

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a) next is break 42.5, retest it, move for 2350
b) it's 10:10, need to make it in 4-5 hours
c) London opens at 2AM...
d) before that would be better

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e) in setting up for 70, 75, or higher
f) so the speed of making 2350, and check down to 44
g) determines odds of what PPI spike will be

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h) so like this now:

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i) so after close, worst case scenario still had us hitting 52 for PPI
j) worst case scenario is now 63, but we expect 72 or higher
k) yes, I remember bright yellow scenario earlier
l) but that had a specific requirement that price failed to execute
m) so we will look for that once we see the reaction to 50-52, we don't have to waste time on that now

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11:01 PM ET, 2340.75, too much stalling here
a) we can eliminate bright yellow outcomes above 2393
b) 75-93 still possible but this stretch needs hit 50 early
c) too much dragging in this spot

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11:44 PM ET, 43.33 SO I CAN SUM IT UP RIGHT NOW:
1) so London opens at 2 AM ET
2) UK bears like to show up at 3 AM
3) PPI is 8:30 AM

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12:54, PPI STRATEGY DISCUSSION:
1) the expected ceiling ahead of CPI is 55 twice
2) RIGHT BEFORE CPI is 48-49
3) the hard ceiling is higher than 80 NOW, but will basically be at 80 RIGHT AFTER CPI
4) so max vol reaction to PPI is 80-48=32, let's just call it 30
5) 8:30 is PPI, we expect the high to hit before 9:00, but probably by 8:45
6) NY closing floor for Tuesday is 2318 AND IS EXPECTED TO GET HIT
7) so ceiling to to floor is 62 we will just call it 60
8) so 30 up 60 down
9) HOWEVER, going down more complicated bc should involve 3 or for different moves or legs down
10) with moderate in-between volatility

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1:37 AM, it's 44.84 and trail your stops. I'm going to bed.

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1:49 AM, I'm going to bed:
1) PRICE CAN DIP
2) BUT NOT BREAK
3) see you in the morning

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8:11 moving for 55 on weaker trend target is 63 for reaction after PPI.

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1) 72 still not eliminated.
2) that line was to protect longs when I slept

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8:22 the correct call is 63 spike reaction.

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1) but 72 is still reasonable, we just cannot expect it
2) that also means if 72 hits IT IS INSTANT SELL

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8:34, first reaction bearish, but can't short yet
a) have to kill bull trend first

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b) 8:38 still moving for 52
c) the bull trend is not dead so cannot short until we confirm it

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8:58 AM ET
1) if the trend did not weakened going into the PPI
2) then we should get the strong move up first
3) now we get a slower move up
4) the min expected bull reaction if check down first is 52
5) but that' doesn't exhaust bull trend yet

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6) there's two ways to exhaust bull trend
a) the slow way is tagging 52 and zig zag sideways
b) she faster way is 52-55-63-and it's not obvious really obvious that 63 would finish the bull momentum

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c) once bulls take out bold line at 52 and they just did....
d) 55, 63, and we will see
e) in chart above see the dotted line at the top?
f) that's the ceiling for INSTANT SPIKE that would have killed bull momentum
g) how we have to kill bull momentum first by
1) sideways FOR THE THE REST OF THE DAY which is 16 hours, but really 18 until London opens
2) or we do 52-55-63 and watch for the turn

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9:37 AM, 48.xx after 45 check down
1) still same place need a decision
2) either up and and 55--63-etc...
3) or down then sideways for 18 hours
4) IT'S NOT OBVIOUS, but if it's A PURELY TREND CALL W/O CONSIDERING PATTERN...
5) then I call 72 before NY closes
6) I just can't prove it bc of what happened over night

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10:03 AM ET - REPLAY CHART AT TOP
1) we are still on trend see?
2) but before I went to bed I said the line (that it was on)
3) needed to hold (for everything to go according to plan)
4) but the checkdown going in added 2-way vol
5) but not enough to kill bull trend
6) in order to get whole reaction right, I would have had to stay up all night for constant mapping
7) during event times, there's not time for mapping
8) so you have to resort to classical TA guide
9) which is what I just did since PPI release
10) in order to confirm move up or move sideways
11) so that's obvious now
12) so what next, long to the high and short the high

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10:16 my view is a trend engine view
a) so the space in between the black line and the dotted blue line
b) is the real support
c) break under this, and it becomes a short term short and sideways/sideways to down
d) nor 16, 18 hours maybe even longer

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e) I don't know when Powell will finish his talk
f) if you do, then watch for that for a clue

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10: 26, bulls goin to break that line a second time
a) if they do, it's 63
b) and 72 LATER, because we don't have hard spike situation anymore
c) we have to deal with the zigzag

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10:28 AM , MY CALL FOR TOP IS 2377

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1) with the requirement that bulls get the black line back
2) that's all they need now for 77
3) been 30 min already for POWELL talk, and bull trend gaining strength
4) if slowly
5) BUT REMEMBER THE "50 PT BANGER" IS NOT THE LONG GOING IN
6) BUT THE SHORT AFTER THE HIGH
7) THAT'S OUR TRADE

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10:45 AM 53.XX over black line second time
a) no more events rest of day so ...
b) trend engine says that 12:45 63 gets hit
c) that is 2 HOURS, but I think closer to 90 min
d) obviously at 63, check down and zigzag some more
e) that leaves 72 to get hit after 3 PM
f) and NY closes 4 PM, after market closes 5 PM
g) so this is the tricky part for move above 72 and to tag 77
h) its likely zone is now AFTER NY CLOSE AT 4:00, but before 4:30
i) why?
j) because remember the "big money signal" this cycle has been LAST 30 BUT ESPECIALLY LAST 15 MIN
k) so we expect max pain for bears at 2377 around and a decent drop off before after market close at 4:00
l) SO THE AFTERMARKET CLOSE SHOULD BE 63-71, let's say 2367 AFTER MARKET CLOSE
m) why does this matter?
n) because our aim going in is to short the high for 50 PT BANGER
o) that is still what we intend to do

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11:04 AM ET, 51.XX HARD STOP AT 50!!

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11:15 -- BE CAREFUL.. this is TOO MANY REJECTIONS AT THE BLACK LINE...

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1) DEAD STOP AT 50.5

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2) losing 50 is a move to 46 which will lead to 18 hours ...
3) on the highway to Sideway City

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11:21 THAT HIT, VERY EARLY, WHICH SIGNALS MAJOR TREND CHANGE
1) WE SHORT NOW
2) STOP 52

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3) NO, 51.15 IS ENOUGH
4) if i t hits then we wait

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5) I have a short signal but but the stop is 51.5
6) that's too tight to do anything

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7) but bears OWN THE CLOCK because bulls HAVE TO BE ON TIME NOW

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8 ) they can't "wait to get up there"
9) IT HAS TO BE NOW

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10) I am shorting with a 54 stop

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1) so instead of 52+25
2) it should be 52-25
3) which is 2327, that's just first move

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4) basically we went box 1, 2, skip 3 now doing 4

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5) trailing my stop

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6) so, Powell's speech put a stop to it and forced hard down turn

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12:03 PM SO 2 TARGETS FIRST IS 31 AND SECOND IS 18

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12:16 47.xx bears don't enough to get to 18
1) they can only do 2331
2) whatever Powell said forced a turn
3) but does not kill the "entire sideways course"
4) so bears get to 2331, SOME SIDEWAYS HAVE TO HAPPEN
5) UNTIL CPI TOMORROW, and then the massive rug pull can happen

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6) covered at 49 and mapping to tomorrow CPI

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7) the first 4 maps says I am right on the call to 2331 by end of today
8) but doesn't know how much zig zag that should be

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9) that line broke immediately I know,
10) but bulls can't move up because their setup is gone
11) so the averages for all ten maps look like this

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7) continuing in chart above WE WILL HIT 2318
8) just have to hit 2365-60 first
9) but notice that the trend for the SECOND HALF OF THE M
10) is very zigzag compared the to the first half
11) that's a wrap for today
11) that's why the yesterday was deeper, BC IT'S GOING TO BE A BIGGER M

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12 ) no trade right now bc it the 2 way vol is not worth it
13 ) once I detail the map I post for CPI

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1:43 PM ET SUMMARY FOR NEXT 36-48 HOURS
1) first, bulls have effectively killed an early drop by now
2) so that puts the floor BEFORE THE SECOND TOP AT 2340
3) but they also reset for a move to 63
4) I don't know if they can do it
5) NY close at 4:00 so it's a coin flip

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6) second, the second half top MAYBE 1 OR 2
7) the timing for those tops are London open and CPI release
8) and they range 2365-2370
9) the bottom should arrive in under 30 hours of the top
10) and that zone is 2285-2295 (depending on timing)

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11) so at 2355.xx at 1:51 PM the're is no good move here
12) a long here is a scalp AND DANGEROUS ONE so trail your stop if you are long

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2:05 PM ET
1) while I am drafting, I do not pay attention to what is on the hourly
2) just be aware that you are almost 2358 and the ceiling is 63 right now
3) the zone for next 20 hours has HIGHER 2 WAY VOL vs the move from 34 to now
4) SO EXPECT MORE ZIG ZAG
5) THIS POST HAS ENDED, will have next draft ready before London

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2:17 watch out for RUG PULL AT 63

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2:18 not sure if it can do 63 tighten stops now

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2:29 PM, this will hold you over until I'm done with it.
1) so THE TOP is not PPI OR CPI
2) it is IN BETWEEN DURING ASIAN SESSSION TONIGHT
3) IT SHOULD BE 2-3 HOURS BEFORE LONDON OPEN
4) so basically 11 PM to midnight NY time
5) the top will actually be 2 tops
6) a 63-65 top and... hold one

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7) scratch that this part is just too hard to aim right
8) I'll name the levels ok?
9) 63, 67, RETRACE HERE, 71, 75?
10) let's just call it MIDNIGHT ET ET AT 2375... so

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16+HR/DAY CONTINUOUS GOLD FORECAST, CPI-PPI 80-POINT FAT M!!

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THIS POST HAS ENDED. NEW POST IS THIS CHART RIGHT ABOVE HERE.

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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