WALK THROUGH TO FOMC PART 10
Updated
Trend engine says 2430, maybe 2435, Friday but early like before 11 AM. So this is what that looks like. And as a result, Mon-Tue-Wed have to be two zigzags. Which means that the spike has to come on Thursday 6/13 for PPI release.
In chart above, light yellow and orange are previous routes from this morning. Blue is now base case. SO 2435 IN ABOUT 27 HOURS FROM NOW!
In chart above, light yellow and orange are previous routes from this morning. Blue is now base case. SO 2435 IN ABOUT 27 HOURS FROM NOW!
Comment
8:20 AM ET, early from PART 9, I wrote in notes that it should tag 55-57 ahead of the turn.1) just did that
2) but one more thing:
Comment
Comment
8:32 AM, TYPO FIXEDa) first reaction small spike to 64 and subdued ...
b) not really amazing
c) but price is boxed by its own trends right now for a little while
d) we should get to 2393 in 5 hours
Comment
e) no, let's say NY CLOSE to be safebc this turn is a tough onef) but we're doing it
Comment
Comment
1) in chart above, see the light blue/purple wave between the orange wave2) and the black wave?
3) it's shooting straight down and to the right
4) so in order to break BOTH these waves
5) price is now zig-zaging for wave order
6) or to get a perfect wave on 30 second bars
7) this so when it shoots up, it can break 2366 and 2371
Comment
9:06 PM watch out not suppose to go to 54...Comment
9:13 as long as price stays 55 and higher a) no change to to base case
b) 54 and under is a problem
Comment
Comment
Comment
9:40 so... the window is so small a) we are talking hours
b) so if there's enough demand to move $10 up to 2376
c) in that case, no further delay
d) but that's unknowable
Comment
e) and it doesn't have to zig zag just stay still at 65 for a couple of hoursf) this "makes the small wave perfect"
Comment
10:24, doesn't "HAVE TO" but usually does zig zag there...a) maybe another 90 min?
b) yeah, should be ready to move strong in 90 min
Comment
10:38, could be ready in 40 min, so 11:20Comment
1) ready here means ready to break previous relative high 2) which is last night's 2374.xx
Comment
11:08 AM ET and 2367.xx, almost ready.Comment
Ordinary-Human: especially tomorrow's NFP1) you get 50 up AND MAYBE 60 DOWN
2) that's a 100 in one day if you get it right
Comment
ORDINARY_HUMAN: you CANNOT SHORT 2410!1) not when you don't know that it's the ceiling...
2) just 2 weeks ago I thought it 2373, then this week 84, 93..
3) but we're supposed to hit 93 by end of NY today
4) so then this week 2400, 2410, then just within the last 36 hours ...
5) 2420, 30, 35 maybe 2440
6) and that's only 10 from all time high
7) so .. I'll map it ahead of ahead of time for PART 11 tonight
Comment
8) let me put it this way...9) if we tag 93 before end of NY
10) Friday high STARTS AT 2430+
Comment
11:42, 76.xx and I have the ceiling wrong for todaya) it's not 2393
b) it is 2402...
c) BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN THAT 2402 IS OUR TARGET
d) our target is still 2393
e) WHILE KEEPING IN MIND OF THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTENDING TO 2402
f) it's just not knowable
Comment
g) when I checked last... we hit 93 LIKE LAST 15 MINUTES OF NY SESSIONh) THEREFORE IF WE HIT WITH 2 HOURS TO SPARE..
i) then obviously we start watching for that
Comment
11:52 AM ET, 77.XX, so..a) if we get 2393 in NY today, tomorrow's ceiling is 2435 give or take
b) if we get 2402, that's a soft signal for 2460 run away high
c) doesn't mean that it's our target
d) it just means we have to take it seriously as it becomes reasonable
e) BECAUSE WE DO KNOW HARD RUGPULL IS COMING SOON AFTER THAT
f) because of being so close to FOMC
g) but usually you don't get HARD RUGPULL unless you get beyond market's range as a whole
h) and honestly 2430 is not unreasonable for as it is the third time in three or four months
Comment
12:08 PM ET 73.XX, a) we need to hit 93, and see if we have time for 2402
b) obviously Tokyo will sell that off right off open
c) but WE NEED TO KNOW IF TOKYO PUT IN ONE MORE HIGH
d) so there's too many moving parts to say what happens to morrow
e) but right now it's 2435 as the "soft ceiling"
f) HARD CEILING IS LIKE 2467-72 something like that
g) but we can't hit that UNLESS WE GET A VERY SPECIFIC SETUP
h) "the irregular quad top setup BEFORE NFP"
Comment
1:20 PM 2372.xx price taking too long to do something 1) and I don't like late moves
2) so we need to see consistent move up from here on out
3) or the trend maps start to favor a just a "regular price action" for NFP
4) without anything notable
Comment
1:33, if price do not move up per tomorrow's plansa) what should do is move up to 2380
b) AND GET REJECTED BACK DOWN
c) we don't even have that yet so.
d) too early to say what next
e) BUT IT IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE REJECTION AT 2380
Comment
1:53 PM 73.XX AND MUCH IS RIDING ON NEXT 45-60 MINUTESa) why? ... dont' know, that's just the way trend works
b) so need to see a break of previous high 2378 within 45-60 mintes
c) AND WE NEED PRICE TO HOLD ABOVE 78 FOR 30 MINUTES
d) if it can't do that... it usually goes down to like 67 or something
e) and then we have an entirely different short term outcome'
f) I don't like this one bc it's to similar to "bear top" scenario in PART 8
g) so be aware
Comment
h) but there's one more route bulls can takei but it may top in London instead...
j) in that scenario, the sell of would start before NFP
k) so NFP is rug pull? ...
l) don't know... too early
m) we will see
Comment
2;04.. looks like CHANGE OF TREND AND PATTERNComment
2:19 PM 2371.XX and I have no idea what is going on. NO IDEA!!Comment
1) So that's a wrap for this entire project right now.2) All subs end tomorrow anyway.
3) Except Charles, I will figure something for you to FOMC.
4) THE END.
Comment
2:29 PM 2171.xx. WARNING: CANCEL ALL BULLISH PLANS!!!Comment
1) so I 've held up my end of the service 2) to go out on a forward note
3) THIS MOVE HERE CAN ONLY MEAN 100 PT DROP BY EARLY TUESDAY!!
4) THERE IS NO OTHER REASON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN RIGHT NOW
5) NO DOUBT MY MIND ... OK?
6) SO UNLESS PRICE PUSHES UP AND CLOSE AT LEAST 2387...
7) IT'S OVER!
8) THE END
Comment
9) all you long term people10 that goes for you too
11) I do not see how that move can just now can be bullish
Comment
Comment
1) in chart above, first look for M PATTERN INTO BATMAN PATTERN... 2) then all fucking way down
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.