MQP PRESENTS - AVERAGE OF EVERYTHING DRAFT 5-5 FINAL, 1H BAR
Updated
HEADER - So this is almost the same as DRAFT 5-4 with some important details.
SUMMARY - This is all the work that went into DRAFTS 3, 4, 5-1, -2, -3, and -4 including all of NOTES in each DRAFT. You can see them individually for background in links below. This is what price action should look like through 04/20/23. I have demonstrated how it is derived each step of the way.
DETAILS - I decided on 1H bar because anything less needs virtually constant updating to be effective. That is to say you have update at least one of the 5 set of boxes every 8 hours or so to CATCH ALL OF THE MOVES in between. I have stated many times in the past that only a machine can do that. That said I expect this chart to be solid all the way through 04/20, even if it diverges a little bit half way through.
STRATEGY - There's only one trade worth trading from my stand point (because I trade very little, but massively when I do), and that's 04/06-04/20 rally. Buy first ellipse, sell second ellipse.
NOTES 1 - BULLS SHOULD GIVE UP IN 12 HOURS from posting of this post.
a) the cap is about 1996 or so, and it doesn't have to hit that to retrace hard down
b) so anything above 1991 in my opinion is a strong tactical short
NOTES 2 - I PUT THE CHANNELS BACK IN
a) so the dotted lines are long term channels
b) the dashed lines are intermediate channels
c) they happen to fit, I DID NOT TRY TO FIT THIS ANYWAY SHAPE OR FORM
NOTES 3 - LISTED AS NEUTRAL
a) bc the long entry doesn't happen until 04/06
b) so until then it's tactical shorting
NOTES 4 - THIS IS JUST A GUIDE
a) this is a guide that recommends WHEN TO HAVE BULL/BEAR BIAS
b) it does not pretend to replace any risk-management strategy
c) but used with caution, it should be very useful to any trading style
SUMMARY - This is all the work that went into DRAFTS 3, 4, 5-1, -2, -3, and -4 including all of NOTES in each DRAFT. You can see them individually for background in links below. This is what price action should look like through 04/20/23. I have demonstrated how it is derived each step of the way.
DETAILS - I decided on 1H bar because anything less needs virtually constant updating to be effective. That is to say you have update at least one of the 5 set of boxes every 8 hours or so to CATCH ALL OF THE MOVES in between. I have stated many times in the past that only a machine can do that. That said I expect this chart to be solid all the way through 04/20, even if it diverges a little bit half way through.
STRATEGY - There's only one trade worth trading from my stand point (because I trade very little, but massively when I do), and that's 04/06-04/20 rally. Buy first ellipse, sell second ellipse.
NOTES 1 - BULLS SHOULD GIVE UP IN 12 HOURS from posting of this post.
a) the cap is about 1996 or so, and it doesn't have to hit that to retrace hard down
b) so anything above 1991 in my opinion is a strong tactical short
NOTES 2 - I PUT THE CHANNELS BACK IN
a) so the dotted lines are long term channels
b) the dashed lines are intermediate channels
c) they happen to fit, I DID NOT TRY TO FIT THIS ANYWAY SHAPE OR FORM
NOTES 3 - LISTED AS NEUTRAL
a) bc the long entry doesn't happen until 04/06
b) so until then it's tactical shorting
NOTES 4 - THIS IS JUST A GUIDE
a) this is a guide that recommends WHEN TO HAVE BULL/BEAR BIAS
b) it does not pretend to replace any risk-management strategy
c) but used with caution, it should be very useful to any trading style
Note
NOTES 5 - 12:22 PM ET, 1991.XX Aa) again, looks like a really strong tactical short to me
b) what's what worse case scenario if you short here?
c) might have to wait to next WED to cash/exit the trade
d) or it might be 15 hours from now
Note
NOTES 6 - 9:54 AM THURSDAY 3/24, IT'S NOT TAKING THIS ROUTEa) price action since stick save at 1980 last night is saying ...
b) that it will be sideways to up, like this:
Note
Note
c) for chart above, continuing:d) so it's 1990.xx right now
e) I would close all shorts
Note
NOTES 7 - This post has ended, I posted DRAFT 6-1 this morning. An hour ago, I posted 6-2 here (while I'm working on 6-3):
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