MQP 15C TOTAL CONVICTION AND EXIT STRATEGY
HEADER - Chart above is mostly self-explanatory minus some details.
SUMMARY - I've tapered four entries for this trade. Now just waiting on 2135-2140 to exit.
DETAILS - Let's break this down more.
1) please be aware that FOMC is 3/16
2) the red box is 1990-2010
3) if it gets near 2000, IT'S A GOOD IDEA TO BREAK THE TRADE IN HALF
4) why? BECAUSE THE TIME BETWEEN TUESDAY NY CLOSE AND FOMC (WED 2PM) is almost UNIVERSALLY WEAK)
5) that is to say if you can sell 1995, it's a pretty good bet you can get in at 1975 in the timezone in between (IF YOU TRADE FUTURES FOR 23 HOURS A DAY)
6) from a total break down linear regression curves for gold's total history going back to 1960's, I HAVE TOTAL CONVICTION in this price map
7) the regressions seem to show that FOMC will be muted, AND THE GIANT MOVE COMES THE DAY AFTER DRIVEN BY A DIFFERENT FACTOR OR DELAYED REACTION
8) the exit IS SIMULTANEOUSLY A SHORT ENTRY FOR 100-120 HOURS AFTER THE HIGH
9) if we nail the high 3/17-3/18, r/r on the following short is RIDICULOUS (almost set it and forget it type of situation)
10) see related posts below for background, bc this is kind of a continuing series situation
SUMMARY - I've tapered four entries for this trade. Now just waiting on 2135-2140 to exit.
DETAILS - Let's break this down more.
1) please be aware that FOMC is 3/16
2) the red box is 1990-2010
3) if it gets near 2000, IT'S A GOOD IDEA TO BREAK THE TRADE IN HALF
4) why? BECAUSE THE TIME BETWEEN TUESDAY NY CLOSE AND FOMC (WED 2PM) is almost UNIVERSALLY WEAK)
5) that is to say if you can sell 1995, it's a pretty good bet you can get in at 1975 in the timezone in between (IF YOU TRADE FUTURES FOR 23 HOURS A DAY)
6) from a total break down linear regression curves for gold's total history going back to 1960's, I HAVE TOTAL CONVICTION in this price map
7) the regressions seem to show that FOMC will be muted, AND THE GIANT MOVE COMES THE DAY AFTER DRIVEN BY A DIFFERENT FACTOR OR DELAYED REACTION
8) the exit IS SIMULTANEOUSLY A SHORT ENTRY FOR 100-120 HOURS AFTER THE HIGH
9) if we nail the high 3/17-3/18, r/r on the following short is RIDICULOUS (almost set it and forget it type of situation)
10) see related posts below for background, bc this is kind of a continuing series situation
Comment:
BTW - please like for support, it helps a great deal
Comment:
MORE NOTES:
1) 3/18 Is the full moon
2) in my charts, I often post FOMC, minutes, CPI, PPI, ADP, NFP, and new moon and full moon, these seem to hit ALL the inflection points
3) so?
4) that seem to mean the high should be 3/18 or right up to it which is 3/17
5) I'm just saying that it's A MATCH NOT A MISMATCH
1) 3/18 Is the full moon
2) in my charts, I often post FOMC, minutes, CPI, PPI, ADP, NFP, and new moon and full moon, these seem to hit ALL the inflection points
3) so?
4) that seem to mean the high should be 3/18 or right up to it which is 3/17
5) I'm just saying that it's A MATCH NOT A MISMATCH
Comment:
6) if we close FRIDAY AT 2070 AGAIN, then YOU MUST EXIT IF YOU ARE NOT IN FUTURES
Comment:
EW COUNT BACK BY Infinite Regressive Layers (IRL)
1) for chart above, this would my count
2) originally, my regression curves research WAS SUPPOSED TO FIND A LOGICAL PROJECTION FOR ELLIOT WAVE COUNTS
3) this would be the first time I can say it has fulfilled that purpose
5) that is to say, PIRL/IRL was orIginally a timing device for EW
2) originally, my regression curves research WAS SUPPOSED TO FIND A LOGICAL PROJECTION FOR ELLIOT WAVE COUNTS
3) this would be the first time I can say it has fulfilled that purpose
5) that is to say, PIRL/IRL was orIginally a timing device for EW
Comment:
4) so obviously the low NEXT WEEK would be GRAY WAVE 4
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6) If you've read 15A and 15B, you can see the formulation of what is basically GRAY WAVE 5 (1-2-3-4-5, with 4-5 being the 2 massive double tops in APRIL AND MAY)
Comment:
Comment:
1) for chart above, it's 90 min bars
2) the regression wave are selected for the price action in question
3) first, there is a blue vertical
4) if price makes it to the blue vertical on top of the black diagonal, odds are heavily heavily favor bulls
5) why should it stop? besides the trend line?
6) each of those lines in the regression ribbons are separated BY THE SAME PERIOD
7) so there is strong compression (read support ) where we are at right now,
8) that not even the flash from 1970 way left got that far
9) so? should you hedge? and how to
10) I personally don't believe in hedging in one ticker
11) meaning if you are uncomfortable, cut your position size
12) hedging is like this: LONG HOME DEPOT, SHORT LOWES
13) long and short the same ticker is basically holding a neutral position as opposed to NO POSITION of which numerically speaking is the same
2) the regression wave are selected for the price action in question
3) first, there is a blue vertical
4) if price makes it to the blue vertical on top of the black diagonal, odds are heavily heavily favor bulls
5) why should it stop? besides the trend line?
6) each of those lines in the regression ribbons are separated BY THE SAME PERIOD
7) so there is strong compression (read support ) where we are at right now,
8) that not even the flash from 1970 way left got that far
9) so? should you hedge? and how to
10) I personally don't believe in hedging in one ticker
11) meaning if you are uncomfortable, cut your position size
12) hedging is like this: LONG HOME DEPOT, SHORT LOWES
13) long and short the same ticker is basically holding a neutral position as opposed to NO POSITION of which numerically speaking is the same
Comment:
14) meanwhile a holding calls and puts together to long or short vol is not hedge, it's LONG OR SHORT VOL
15) my trade is not complicated to the extent that you need to ask "should I buy some puts here? bc this thing looks bearish AF?"
16) again, YOUR EMOTIONS TELL YOU HOW MUCH RISK YOU SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT HAVE ON
15) my trade is not complicated to the extent that you need to ask "should I buy some puts here? bc this thing looks bearish AF?"
16) again, YOUR EMOTIONS TELL YOU HOW MUCH RISK YOU SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT HAVE ON
Comment:
10:41
Comment:
10:41 PM ET
1) I saw the drop under 1940.
2) worried, no
3) added whatever I could long, but not leveraged
4) does this change anything for this trade? NO, NO THIS ONE, BUT THE NEXT ONE.
5) so my plans are the same, exit FRIDAY 3/18, BUT AT 2125-2130
6) THE DIFFERENCE IS NO SHORT ENTRY AT THE EXIT
7) the reason is that this implies that GOLD TAGS 2230 before having another major correction
8) what about an in-between correction??
9) so let's say gold tags 2130 on Friday, AND WE EXIT
10) the short would only be good for 60 pts AND YOU HAVE WATCH 23 HOURS A DAY
11) because it may not occur during which ever time zone your regular weekday markets is in
12) well then why not hold to 2230?
13) because from a regression point of view, we need to see the that gold defends 2070 after it drops from 2130
14) so that the curves STOP SHOWING "1930 AFTER 2130"
1) I saw the drop under 1940.
2) worried, no
3) added whatever I could long, but not leveraged
4) does this change anything for this trade? NO, NO THIS ONE, BUT THE NEXT ONE.
5) so my plans are the same, exit FRIDAY 3/18, BUT AT 2125-2130
6) THE DIFFERENCE IS NO SHORT ENTRY AT THE EXIT
7) the reason is that this implies that GOLD TAGS 2230 before having another major correction
8) what about an in-between correction??
9) so let's say gold tags 2130 on Friday, AND WE EXIT
10) the short would only be good for 60 pts AND YOU HAVE WATCH 23 HOURS A DAY
11) because it may not occur during which ever time zone your regular weekday markets is in
12) well then why not hold to 2230?
13) because from a regression point of view, we need to see the that gold defends 2070 after it drops from 2130
14) so that the curves STOP SHOWING "1930 AFTER 2130"
Comment:
Comment:
1) for chart above, change of plans
2) DO NOT SHORT THE 2130 AREA UNLESS YOU'RE CAN EXIT IN FUTURES 23 HOURS A DAY
3) we are not in a bearish area, if prices are forced too low, the swing up (with regressions in order has to consistently blow up the bears
2) DO NOT SHORT THE 2130 AREA UNLESS YOU'RE CAN EXIT IN FUTURES 23 HOURS A DAY
3) we are not in a bearish area, if prices are forced too low, the swing up (with regressions in order has to consistently blow up the bears
Comment:
4) I want to restate that I have 100% conviction in this pay off, if that's not obvious.
Comment:
8:22
1) closed all longs at 1928
2) just work up
3) i am short because I see no support until 1907
4) can't be long until either I see 1907 or short term regressions go sideways
1) closed all longs at 1928
2) just work up
3) i am short because I see no support until 1907
4) can't be long until either I see 1907 or short term regressions go sideways
Comment:
8:52
1) closed shorts 1921
2) no more value
3) back in long
1) closed shorts 1921
2) no more value
3) back in long
Comment:
12:11 PM ET
1) change of plans again
2) sell FRIDAY OR MONDAY AT 2000-2010 ON THE SWING UP
3) we will be fine, it's just another route higher
4) I think the 2010 high should be around NOON ON FRIDAY
1) change of plans again
2) sell FRIDAY OR MONDAY AT 2000-2010 ON THE SWING UP
3) we will be fine, it's just another route higher
4) I think the 2010 high should be around NOON ON FRIDAY
Comment:
5) double checked again, it's monday morning u.s. market 2010
6) friday takes us to 1970s
6) friday takes us to 1970s
Comment:
7) I just bought a breakeven position for APRIL 1, just in case my wave release signal is right, 3:12 pm
8) I've gone this far with the method, I can't walk away from it without the signal finishing
9) and it finishes from 6-12 trading sessions so, we're going to find out if it's worth anything
8) I've gone this far with the method, I can't walk away from it without the signal finishing
9) and it finishes from 6-12 trading sessions so, we're going to find out if it's worth anything
Comment:
10) closed that too, too many counter signals
Comment:
10:18 AM WED FOMC DAY I HAVE A STRADDLE ON 1917
1)
1)
Comment:
1) both long and short
2) heavier on the short side
3) because we're 50/50, 50pt move territory
4) what I really think but can't prove, is jgaldon's theory of 1870
5) maybe even 1860
6) it's the beginning of a liquidtity crisis, nothing is safe
7) get to 1865-ish and we move for double top by 4/25
8) the thing about liquidity crisis for gold is a massive double top
2) heavier on the short side
3) because we're 50/50, 50pt move territory
4) what I really think but can't prove, is jgaldon's theory of 1870
5) maybe even 1860
6) it's the beginning of a liquidtity crisis, nothing is safe
7) get to 1865-ish and we move for double top by 4/25
8) the thing about liquidity crisis for gold is a massive double top
Comment:
Comment:
3/19 It's going to e sideways for quite sometime. It's March now, nothing worth looking at until June at least.
Comment:
3/21 -- It should look more like this:
Comment:
1) there is some value in that big box above
2) it would be long April 30 and exit 5/28
3) in this somewhat stronger set of curves, the entry is pushed to LATE JULY to LATE AUGUST
4) the majority of the move would be after annual JACKSON HOLE FOMC
5) and the first of two tops would be SEPTEMBER 22-ISH
2) it would be long April 30 and exit 5/28
3) in this somewhat stronger set of curves, the entry is pushed to LATE JULY to LATE AUGUST
4) the majority of the move would be after annual JACKSON HOLE FOMC
5) and the first of two tops would be SEPTEMBER 22-ISH
Comment:
6) as of right now, still tentative
7) have to see what it looks like on 4/25 to make the post
7) have to see what it looks like on 4/25 to make the post
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