GOLD / wth?
Updated
Why 1225?
Why you use softwares? The real trader never believes in machines/Softwares.
Here is the analysis without software in old school way.
Monthly base levels ( calculated with other technique that I will not get into )
1256.xx
1234.xx
Domain -12,9 drawn at 1256.xx
Domain +0,17 drawn at 1234.xx
Monthly Timing dates:
2017 March 4
y- intercept
2017 April 5
x - intercept ending.
y-intercept High at MDCIP 80 / 110 which by calculations is 1289.xx
From Domain Right +0,17 small Transversal is drawn down to x-intercepter end point.
The baseline of the march is 1210.xx so we use Interval Notation at that level.
Small Transversal is crossing the IN at +/- 0.
At -2 we have Discontinuation break below 1245.xx
At +2 we have Break of y-intercept + d4/22 Transversal.
So after breaking d4 transversal upwards if there is no test back of that level that means we would be bullish for a d4 end point upwards which is 1270.xx ish.
We noticed a test back and test back appears at 1225.xx level.
After going more up and hitting Domain Right at + 0,17 we look for drop to 1225.xx
Did not happen.
We know that then we need interval notation tool and new transversal pointing downwards from Domain Right to x-intercept end point, but must be within the range of -33 to + 33 degrees.
Transversal successfully at -33 degrees.
Interval notation analysis valid for timeframe March 22 to April 1, and cannot be outside this timeframe.
We draw new y and x-intercept.
x-intercept starts and ends where the IN and cannot extend.
the y-intercept is at +2 on IN and cannot be elsewhere and the High must be at D4 transversal because we need parent transversal ( small green one ) and must be within -110 to -160 degrees count and cannot exceed.
Once all is drawn we then look for confirmations.
Transversal Cross is at 0 on IN so we draw small parent transversal from D4 pointing right at 0 downwards.
In order for gold to be bullish, it cannot break this transversal and must go up to estimated target 1270.xx ish.
Gold break it.
We look for interaction with y intercept and d4/22 transversal if break y-intercept and bounce from d4/22 up to previous High 1260 which aligns with IN 0 then target change from 1225 to 1210.
If break y-intercept and break d4/22 transversal then the target can exceed 1225 to 1214, but for that gold need to break x-intercept at +4 on IN scale. If x-intercept is broken downwards before it aligns with +4 on IN scale then that means gold will reach estimated bearish targets ( 1225 ) but will go back up to reach D4 1270.ish target.
End of ....
I would die if I would have to do such analysis every day, that is why I have created a machine that calculates all this for me and just prints the numbers. We live in 21'st century brother, seems that some of you are stuck in 90's.
Only noobs use robots... Well, I love to be a noob.
Like I said I trade using only mathematics and formulas, period!
In simple words would love to see a drop to 1225ish and afterward's when it is the right time back up to reach 1270-1304.
Good Luck.
Why you use softwares? The real trader never believes in machines/Softwares.
Here is the analysis without software in old school way.
Monthly base levels ( calculated with other technique that I will not get into )
1256.xx
1234.xx
Domain -12,9 drawn at 1256.xx
Domain +0,17 drawn at 1234.xx
Monthly Timing dates:
2017 March 4
y- intercept
2017 April 5
x - intercept ending.
y-intercept High at MDCIP 80 / 110 which by calculations is 1289.xx
From Domain Right +0,17 small Transversal is drawn down to x-intercepter end point.
The baseline of the march is 1210.xx so we use Interval Notation at that level.
Small Transversal is crossing the IN at +/- 0.
At -2 we have Discontinuation break below 1245.xx
At +2 we have Break of y-intercept + d4/22 Transversal.
So after breaking d4 transversal upwards if there is no test back of that level that means we would be bullish for a d4 end point upwards which is 1270.xx ish.
We noticed a test back and test back appears at 1225.xx level.
After going more up and hitting Domain Right at + 0,17 we look for drop to 1225.xx
Did not happen.
We know that then we need interval notation tool and new transversal pointing downwards from Domain Right to x-intercept end point, but must be within the range of -33 to + 33 degrees.
Transversal successfully at -33 degrees.
Interval notation analysis valid for timeframe March 22 to April 1, and cannot be outside this timeframe.
We draw new y and x-intercept.
x-intercept starts and ends where the IN and cannot extend.
the y-intercept is at +2 on IN and cannot be elsewhere and the High must be at D4 transversal because we need parent transversal ( small green one ) and must be within -110 to -160 degrees count and cannot exceed.
Once all is drawn we then look for confirmations.
Transversal Cross is at 0 on IN so we draw small parent transversal from D4 pointing right at 0 downwards.
In order for gold to be bullish, it cannot break this transversal and must go up to estimated target 1270.xx ish.
Gold break it.
We look for interaction with y intercept and d4/22 transversal if break y-intercept and bounce from d4/22 up to previous High 1260 which aligns with IN 0 then target change from 1225 to 1210.
If break y-intercept and break d4/22 transversal then the target can exceed 1225 to 1214, but for that gold need to break x-intercept at +4 on IN scale. If x-intercept is broken downwards before it aligns with +4 on IN scale then that means gold will reach estimated bearish targets ( 1225 ) but will go back up to reach D4 1270.ish target.
End of ....
I would die if I would have to do such analysis every day, that is why I have created a machine that calculates all this for me and just prints the numbers. We live in 21'st century brother, seems that some of you are stuck in 90's.
Only noobs use robots... Well, I love to be a noob.
Like I said I trade using only mathematics and formulas, period!
In simple words would love to see a drop to 1225ish and afterward's when it is the right time back up to reach 1270-1304.
Good Luck.
Note
Transversals, by the way, are the same well known and famous Transitions that back in the day we were trading and that produced some INSANE trades older followers know and remember.Unfortunately after new year behavior change, most of the old formulas Fail and never work again so old transitions cannot be used. I tried a lot of things but research showed that it is impossible to use 90% of things I used for a period of 5 years due to behavior change in the market. But way before that I was already starting to work on new advanced transitions which now are called BL's and work only on Binomial distribution basis, but good old transversals can be used.
RIP old good Transitions.
Note
Transversal D4/22 hold gold upward move, that adds up to bullish accumulation. Break of D4/22 upwards and drop would delete accumulation signs. Clear rejection and hopefully drop leaves them up there so buy will get stronger and stronger afterward's.Note
The question that I get the most. With what to start in order to do mathematical trading? I have explained it, but still... Then the question is ok, with what you started, what was the first thing you started to apply on trading using mathematics. It is something I have never told yes...Hmm... Actually, I started with Fibonacci as it is the closest thing to mathematics and since in forex we use Fibonacci that was the first thing I started to use. But that is amateur level. If we look at more complex things, a buddy of mine which got me going in Forex world gave me a hint... do you know what is " Logistic map "? Google it... you'll find a lot of info about it.
And turns out we can convert forex chart, any instrument, any timeframe into the Logistic map. That is actually first thing that this all started from.
Take it for what it's worth. :)
Note
This is why I refer to Behavior...dynamics... in the market. The logistic map is the one with what you can actually calculate behavior change and dynamic levels. It is not that hard...It all starts with the r brother.Note
Seems that we have a completed Bifurcation Diagram with 3 unconnected points.Need to see some nuances and how they develop but that can add up a lot in our plans.
If Diagram will complete and points will not connect I will publish Idea
Note
Gold is approaching +4 on Interval notation scale... we need to break down the x-intercept before that happens...Note
I hope the frequency rollover can happen as it was forming today on the intraday basis. I really need the break down before +4 is approached! Timing... Timing... Timing..Sad that market doesn't care about what I need.
Note
Damn.. only 4 hours left. Massive rejection from x-intercept.postimg.org/image/diubmfn5t/
Note
We had a break of x-intrecept after +4 approached that means more complex move ahead. But still will do more analysis as there is a lot of nuances.Note
I did a full review on Interval Notation scale. TV chart confused me. This thing is very sensitive for me so I went little bit emotional. I don't know why but when Ideas get published things move on the chart a little bit. Stupid that I was trying to compare stuff on TV chart.We had a break of x-intercept right on +4 not after. Absolutely nailed break right on +4. That is very very very good. I cannot stress that enough how good it is.
15 mins later and it would be delayed x-intercept break and then complex expanded levels would come in the game and 90% of bullish accumulation levels would be canceled.
Let this thing hit that damn 1225... then let's see what it will feel like, and we will buy. This Goldy circus guy is accumulating some crazy bull.
Remember our pre-fomc interest rate decision buy? Bullish accumulation based on dollar Resistance and gold support were insane... we have something similar accumulating here now.
Patience is all time big winner. You know that!
Note
Possible re-test of x-intercept before any further fall down. 1245-1247.
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