NO MORE INCENTIVE #3-4B

Nov 2, 2023

WARNING - This is a follow up of previous work. I have stopped "around the clock continuous updates and notes" that detail hour to hour price action. This is all you get until the next one. As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget first rule. As usual, this is meant to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. As always, when price moves against forecasts and the next one is not posted, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.

HEADER - This is the weekly picture one week out. Generic here means the general DIRECTION AND SHAPE. End of #3-3 today saw bulls setup a reversal that I explicitly called at the end of notes for #3-3. The #3-4 posted from my phone was super fuzzy because I tried my best to show a move to 1992 w/o a stylus when the screen went out of whack. So that was useless.

SUMMARY - This is #3-4B because it includes all the details that would've completed #3-4. That is to say that this forecast is already five hours old at time of posting. I just don't have any time for a new one. I don't even have time to handicap this to say which is favored. At 11:22 PM ET on 11/01 and at 1984.xx, my OPINION is bull route.

IN CHART ABOVE - Blue is current bull route. Light oranges are from #3-2 and #3-3. Darkest orange is current bear route. The bold line again is the important line here. That seems imply that bulls are a bit favored.

FRAME OF REFERENCE - Links for each of #3, 3-1, 3-2, and 3-3 are below here. I always recommend to replay them for frame of reference. This time, it's not helping me any.

Nov 2, 2023

Note

12:20 AM ET 11/01, 1984.XX, If bulls don't move it up within 30-40 minutes, they deserve to die.
1) why?
2) the setup is there to move up
3) it's so obvious, but if it drifts to 1982 in hour or two
4) bears can force a swing down hard

Nov 2, 2023

Note

12:53 AM ET, this a constant theme in forecasting, consider

a) so chart above is today's 2 routes plus the one week out bear route from #3-2
b) it was made days ago
c) and combined with today's bear route, it's basically a mirror of today's bull route
d) but it was made SEPARATELY, with two entirely different mapping methods and ratios
e) just keep that in mind, it's why I suggest replay older maps for "frame of reference" and often leave old expired routes on new charts

Nov 2, 2023

Note

2:02 AM ET 1984.XX, reversal down starting
1) failure at this juncture, not an option for bulls
2) that means down
3) I don't have time to map it
4) but it should reflect bear move shifted over

Nov 2, 2023

Note

5) but that also means we don't know what should happen after 10 AM like this:

Nov 2, 2023

Note

6) I'm going to bed, good night

Nov 2, 2023

Note

7) 3:05 AM ET, TRIED TO MAP IT
1) couldn't do it
2) two logical routes are eliminated
3) it can't be sideways forever
4) it does not seem like tomorrow is a big deal, so more sideways
5 we should know more ahead of NFP on Friday

Nov 2, 2023

Note

9:39 AM ET 1984.xx
6) I've got nothing good to add today, and not due to lack of trying
7) it's just the specific area, just so much gray and indecision
8) if you replay chart, what I think is price action is a checkdown in the middle of both paths
9) and what that could mean for NFP it leans bullish and really that's it
10) I could argue it both ways right here so let's just wait for more information

Nov 2, 2023

Note

11:51 AM ET 1981.XX GOT IT!
1) figured it out an hour ago, but it didn't signal it until 2 hours ago
2) this one one was hard, here is snapshot of #3-5:

Nov 2, 2023

Note

3) in chart above, there is only 1 favorite and no plan B
4) hence I'm trying to find a plan B

Nov 2, 2023

Note

THIS POST HAS ENDED. HERE IS #3-5 COMPLETE WITH PLAN B: