Gold trend analysis for next Monday

This week, the gold market has repeatedly surged, and then fell under pressure. On Friday, gold surged to 2368 and then plunged, bringing a big wash to the market. The current gold price is already below the 5-day and 10-day moving average support of 2325-2330. The 4-hour chart has fallen continuously. All previous supports have been broken, and long and short positions have begun to switch. It is expected that it will be difficult to see a surge in the market again in the short term. A big negative line directly breaks through all support levels. At present, the overall K-line is a bearish trend. Although there has been a retracement to a weak market, it is not recommended to continue to chase shorts. One-sided market conditions are always accompanied by the repair of longs and shorts. On the top, you can first look at the weekly moving average watershed position of 2342, and then arrange short orders after a steady rebound to this area. If the market is not so strong, then touching 2332-2335 is also an opportunity. The target below is 2280.

On the whole, the short-term operation suggestions for gold next Monday are mainly to go short on rebounds, supplemented by longs on callbacks. The top focus will be on the 2333-2335 resistance range, and the bottom focus will be on the 2295-2290 support range.

Comment:

The gold market has seen wild volatility this week, with prices posting respectable weekly gains until Friday, but turning negative on a weekly basis after Friday's sharp drop, causing gold to give up all of its gains this week. Recent technicals have yet to highlight a strengthening of bullish momentum. Investors will continue to focus on geopolitical headlines and key U.S. data releases next week.

​ The U.S. economic calendar will not release any high-impact data that could have a significant impact on gold in the first half of next week. Therefore, headlines surrounding the Middle East war conflict will continue to be watched. A further escalation in geopolitical tensions could give gold bullish momentum. On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release final data on first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release May data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. Investors may react to the core PCE inflation data, which excludes volatile commodity prices such as food and energy and is not distorted by base effects. In April, the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month. If the May data is 0.2% or lower, it could reignite expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve and lead to selling pressure on the dollar. On the other hand, if the data reaches 0.3% or higher, it could trigger a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and force gold prices lower by the end of next week.

Comment:

Gold Trading Strategies Reference

🎯Strategy 1: Go short when gold rebounds to around 2330-2333, stop loss 6 points, target around 2315-2305, break the position and look at the 2295 line✅

🎯Strategy 2: Go long when gold pulls back to around 2295-2297 , stop loss by 6 points, target around 2305-2315, and look at the 2320 line if the position is broken✅

The trend of the gold market is changing rapidly, and trading strategies may also be adjusted in real time. Investors are advised to place orders cautiously and manage account funds and positions reasonably.

Comment:

In early European trading on Monday (June 24), gold prices surged in the short term, breaking through $2,330. It rebounded from the retracement decline from the two-week high set on Friday. Although the Federal Reserve unexpectedly took a hawkish stance and predicted only one rate cut in 2024, market sentiment still suggests that there is still a possibility of two rate cuts this year due to easing inflationary pressures. This expectation puts downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, coupled with a weakening risk tone, geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty in Europe, supporting gold's status as a safe-haven asset. Stronger-than-expected U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data released on Friday indicated that the economy is resilient, pushing the dollar to its highest level since May 9, while a stronger dollar limited further gains in gold. Traders are watching the release of key economic data this week, and comments from members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are crucial to shaping market expectations. The final values ​​of the U.S. GDP and PCE price index released this week will provide more insights into the economic outlook and potential monetary policy adjustments.

In addition, according to a new report from US cable TV, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said on Sunday that the fierce war phase with Hamas in Gaza is about to end, and the army's focus may shift to Israel's northern border with Lebanon. In recent weeks, Israel's fighting with Iran-backed Hezbollah has intensified, which will also provide effective support for gold prices.