Long

Updated

MQP PRESENTS - SERIOUS MONEY PART 1, DRAFT 2

HEADER - This is likely the last draft for this move.

SUMMARY - The coiling of a vertical spike to 2070-2090 is going to reach the limit of coiling in 36-54 hours. This move is picture perfect setup now. If it is going to invalidate, it will do so in 36-54 hours.

DETAILS - See previous posts for details.

NOTES - Per usual will add more soon.

Note

NOTES 1 - PICTURE PERFECT ENTRY IS NOW TO TUESDAY NY CLOSE.
1) the slowest version of this move has the entry now to 3 PM ET tomorrow
2) this also means that 1925-1930 has to hold strong
3) breaking that implies something else
4) what else, I'm not sure
5) again, I haven't added more or levered up
6) bc it has not made that second spike
7) or even begin to shape that second spike

Note

NOTES 2 - WHY "SERIOUS" MONEY?
1) it's not this specific trade that makes it "serious"
2) it's what this trade would mean for September-October, for Jan-Mar 2024...
3) for the gold bull thesis as a whole

Note

8.50 PM ET, MON 8/7
1)1935.XX added to longs 2/9

Note

2) 1929 should be HARD STOP FOR people that need one

Note

8/7 11:06 PM ET: INVALIDATION MARKERS
1) so this chart is a must hit or it is invalidation:

2) even if it gets half way and don't hit the top of each box
3) Tuesday box needs to happen in the AM
4) Wednesday too
5) Thursday box can take into PM

Note

8:53 AM ET, TUES, 8/8, INVALIDATES AT 1929
1) at about an hour ago
2) now 1925.xx
3) what now?
4) back to waiting and waiting again

Note

9:10 AM ET, TUES 8/8, 1928.xx
1) so we're clear, this invalidated for people who needed a stop
2) that's so I don't have noobs complaining they blew up their accts or something
3) personally, for me, im in for 2/9 and I'm holding bc the setup has played up everytime I've seen it
4) it's one of the ones that has paid me well
5) obviously anything can happen, but I have a personal need to see this through today, Wednesday, and Thursday before I quit this trade

Note

6) I am realy thinking that this swings up hard late Wed into Thursday
7) but I can't reccommend that you hold your longs bc the break is obvious:

Note

8) continuing at 9:3 AM ET
9) in the mean time I have puts (WHILE I STILL HOLD MY CALLS)
10) bc the down trend has 1913-1917 floor
11) and for those that don't understand, it is because I CAN HAVE OPPOSING IDEAS AT THE SAME TIME
12) it does not have to be EITHER OR
13) it's not a hedge
14) it is a 36 hour short and an 8 day long

Note

15) that is NOT a suggestion that YOU SHOULD SHORT
16) I'm just saying that's what I am doing in the mean time
17) the 36 hour short is trading window, not option expiration
18) I guess it's an effective hedge even though I don't treat it that way

Note

10.31 AM ET 8/8
1) added to longs 3/9, 1928.xx
2) still have puts
3) NOW, the putsare ahedge

Note

4) on highway on my phone, going to have typos

Note

5) if we can still hit 1946 before midnight
6) 2080 still good for 8/15

Note

8/9 10:34 AM ET 1922.xx
1) going to cover my puts between now and 7PM ET TONIGHT
2) probably around NY close today
3) MAYBE adding long 4/9 or maybe not, and just keeping 3 long entries w/o adding more
4) THURS AM is PPI
5) FRI AM is PPI
6) this decides everything for this trade

Note

8/9 4:26 PM ET 1915.xx
1) cover all puts
2) entry long 4/9, 5/9, 6/9

Note

7:12 PM ET ENTRY BIDS 7/9, 8/9, and 9/9
1) have 3 bids at 1910, 1911, 1912
2) next update 9 AM ET tomorrow

Note

11:14 PM ET 1918.XX
1) canceled bids
2) bought 7/9, 8/9, 9/9 entries long

Note

7:52 AM ET, THURS 8/10, 1922.xx
1) sold 6/9 of longs bought 8/9 at 1915.xx and 1918.xx in $
2) sold 2/9 of longs bought 8/8 and 8/7 at 1928.xx and 1935.xx in -$
3) put hedges sold yesterday bought 8/8 1929.xx and covered 1915.xx.in $
4) rolled over original long from 1938 into 10/15 expiration
5) I just can't see what price was to do

Note

10:01 AM ET 1922.xx again after swinging
1) still don't know what it wants to do
2) I'm hedged from 1924 until this sets up a break one way or the other
3) END OF POST, nothing new yet

Note

11:22 AM ET 1914.XX
1) covered hedges (8/16 puts)
2) double 10/15 calls
3) holding this for 65 days just for mean reversion
4) this move down has been SOO STUPID on a 27 days vs all time basis
5) I really want to see what happens whole day tomorrow
6) that's a wrap

Note

9:47 AM ET 8/11 1915.xx
1) sold all longs 1916.xx
2) for whatever reasons, the short term keeps getting more bearish
3) but at supper bullish intermediate-long juncture
4) don't know what that means
5) but trading in/out w/ hedges is not my style
6) that's a complete wrap
7) so barring 30 pt move to end the day, which is not showing on short term
8) it's slowly drip and drip until the floor falls out, wherever that maybe
9) but intermediate-long literally says the opposite
10) have a good one, sorry it didn't work out
11) tried to post my tactics as much as I could to help this time

Note

SATURDAY 8/12 11:04 PM ET
1) man, I am stumped
2) I have to write this here because I have nowhere else to share this meaningfully
3) we are "SUPPOSED TO BE AT 2050" give or take
4) and we ARE OBVIOUSLY AT 1913
5) I can't find where the math is wrong, except that IT IS OBVIOUSLY WRONG
6) so here's what would mean for mean reversion:

Note

7. continuing with chart above:
8. so at literally ANY DAY now, we are supposed to move to 2020++
9. that's what everything longer than 72 days say, or really SCREAMING
10. but HOW?!!

Note

11. I am sooo stumped with this move...
12. how can we go to 1840 from here?
13. liquidity crisis?
14. I would post that, but it doesn't say that..
15. the only bear route is averaging $5 down per day for 3 weeks
16. and it's still massive dog vs spike to 2050 by 8/18 close
17. BUT THE SHORT TRENDS ARE STILL BEAR
18. I am soo annoyed beyond imagination

Note

SUNDAY 8/13 12:34 AM ET -- SO FIRST, WHAT'S NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN, YET SEEMS LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN:

Note

1. for chart above:
2. why "not supposed to"?
3. because if you run random ratios, this hits roughly 15% of the time
4. the problem is that price action since August 1st has continuously hit this route
5. which was originally 6%, then eventually rising to 10, 12, now 15% and rising

Note

12:42 AM ET, HERE IS WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN:

Note

6) continuing in chart above:
7) at what point do we know?
8) all I know is that we are going to find out
9) I have some lotteries for the bull move
10) but I only have them bc I can't in good conscience short gold here
11) 30-day straddle not terrible idea either

Note

SUNDAY 8/13, 8:38 PM ET, 1911.XX
1. continuing down
2. expect 1907 in hours
3. expect even lower by Monday night
4. everything 27 day and shorter is forcing prices towards 1820-1840
5. the break of this bullish posture spells doom for gold over the long run, especially jan to March 2024

Note

10:22 AM ET MONDAY 8/14
1. saw 1903 a bit ago
2. got the early draft of this movedown but it's not worth trading for a week maybe longer
3. because of some zig zag coming for a while

Note

10:50 AM ET
1. so here:

Note

2. for chart above:
3. where it says 8/22
4. the bulls haven't given up yet
5. there's going to be a fight until 8/21-8/24
6. then rug pull
7. personally the action until that window is not worth the headache
8. I will post this short around 8/20-8-21
9. there's 2 legs where the 2 arrows are
10. the third leg is TENTATIVE right now

Note

11. this is still barring some high vol mirracle spike for bulls
12. before time expires on noon of 8/16 (this wednesday)

Note

8/15 10:47 AM ET
1) so here are 5 different ratios vs implied price action for remainder of August:

Note

2) the odds of miracle high volatility spike up has diminished greatly in past 24 hours
3) why? and what has changed to be able to say that?
4) it is "everything" under 100-day period saying that the next 2-3 spikes to 1930 will get sold off
5) bc of the ratios of medium-shorterm-micro curves on all five "equidistant ratios" saying that now

Note

6) continuing with chart below:

Note

7) I realized this point over the weekend:
8) if ratios were "different sides of a dice", then red path, or most bullish path would hit perfect perfect
9) however, the Fed "manages" monetary policy, so essentially, it is basically a "rigged" - for lack of a better word - dice
10) so no, the odds are not what I perceived to be from a perfect probability perspective
11) so the process should be " what does short term SAY FIRST
12) for those that understand the math, that means that an ELRC (as opposed to EMA) should be developed that puts heavier weight on the most recent price action

Note

13) in the mean time, if price had taken the gray path as opposed to the blue path
14) then it would say that next spike to 1980 SHOULD HOLD
15) but price took the blue path, so we have what we have now
16) which says next 1, 2, or 3 spikes gto 1930's area will be sold off
17) or more specifically
18) it is saying that inside 6 trading days from now (8/23, next wednesday)
19) price SHOULD make 3 attempts for a rally to 1930s area

Note

20) about 1.33 (or more than one but less than two) of those attempts should hit 1930s
21) at the same time, it's within reasonable expectation 3 CAN HIT 1930s area
22) but that scenario will likely alter path from 8/23 to 8/31 at least moderately from where it is now

Note

23) now replay this:

Note

24) so that is from last month 7/11
25) price followed blue boxes first, but kept falling through 1930-1945 area and is now...
26) "making a reflection of the bull move" or
27) "making a higher version of the bear move" or
28) basically SIDEWAYS TO 1930s AROUND 8/22-23 AND THEN RUG PULL

Note

29) I focused ON ONLY EVERYTHING UNDER 30 TRADING DAYS
30) it is saying that LOWER LOW FIRST, THEN SIDEWAYS TO 1920'S
31) and THEN RUGPULL, like this:

Note

32) in the spirit of first things first, everything under 12 and 6 days still agree that
33) lower low first like this:

Note

34) if but if bulls want to "move the odds" for the next week or two
35) they need to do it by like tomorrow

Note

36) or a little bit past midnight tonight
37) with the main window being BEFORE NY CLOSES TODAY
38) if there is no "second spike up" by roughly 2-3 AM ET
39) odds favor 1887 next
40) that is BASE CASE UNTIL SOMETHING CHANGES

Note

TUESDAY 8/15 10:56 PM ET -- WARNING, SOMETHING JUST BROKE
1. I am not sure it's going to slow down
2. this "sideways to 8/22" look is not holding
3. bc the reversal can't be spotted yet
4. it just means more and more bearish

Note

5. 15 minutes later...
6. ok... not a false alarm
7. but how to say this right...
8. I don't know that it will slow down
9. I also don't know that it won't slow down
10. ALL I KNOW IS THAT IT'S GOING DOWN HARD, just a matter of how quickly
11. my "sideways to 8/22" is not looking that great right now vs the alternative
12. which is zig zag down...
13. which is more extreme than "staircase down"
14. that's all I can muster right now

Note

15. I will know more at about 4-5 AM ET tomorrow

Note

16. continuing at 11:32 PM ET
17. base case stands, but next 8 hours we decide if it slows down or not
18. 1820-1840 is pretty set for 9/15 or earlier

Note

19. continuing at 12:04 AM ET, WEDNESDAY 8/16
20. so here's work up with EVERYTHING ON

Note

21. here is everything simplified:

Note

22. I will repost this as MQP-IER-001

Note

23. END OF POST, HERE IS WHERE WE ARE AT NOW:

MQP-IER-001: GOLD TO 1800 BY 09/15/23, PROBABLY A WEEK EARLIER

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