Gold trend continues bearish

Gold has started its market trend in the second half of the year starting today. The monthly gold chart once again closed the negative cross, and the lows continued to move downwards. The weekly line entered a large triangle shock. It shot higher and fell back on Friday. The price broke through the high point and did not continue. The market began to enter. A shock range with 2320 as the central axis, which is also the shock pattern experienced by the current market. Although the center of gravity of the market price has shifted downward compared to the previous shock range, the shock pattern still continues, showing that the main theme of current market fluctuations is still shock.

Judging from today's trend, if it closes negative again, then the evening star will be formed, and gold will fall sharply at that time, and it is entirely possible to fall below 2300. The short-term pressure level above is still around 2330-2332, and we only need to pay attention to the 2300 integer mark for support below. The 1-hour chart of gold continued to fall to around 2318, indicating that it is still a bearish trend and the bulls are currently in a weak position, so we can continue to short around 2328.

On the whole, today's short-term gold operation advice is mainly to go short on rebounds, supplemented by longs on callbacks. The top short-term focus will be on the 2339-2341 resistance range, and the bottom short-term focus will be on the 2300-2305 support range.

Comment:

Spot gold prices remained stable in early European trading on Monday (July 1), and are currently trading around $2,326 per ounce.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in a 68% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, compared with 64% before the inflation data was released. U.S. prices were flat month-on-month in May, with a small increase in service costs offset by the biggest drop in commodity prices in six months, bringing the Fed closer to starting to cut rates later this year. The report released by the U.S. Commerce Department last Friday also showed that consumer spending grew slightly last month. Core prices grew at the slowest pace in six months, raising optimism that the Fed can engineer a much-anticipated "soft landing" for the economy, with inflation cooling without triggering a recession and a sharp rise in unemployment.

This week's U.S. Independence Day holiday will make the release of economic data unusual, with important data being compressed around the holiday. The market will usher in the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' index on Monday, followed by the eurozone CPI preliminary value and JOLTS job vacancies data on Tuesday. ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak at the central bank meeting in Portugal. On Wednesday, the market will focus on the ADP employment report, weekly unemployment claims data and the ISM services purchasing managers index, as well as the June FOMC meeting minutes. After the July 4 holiday, US traders will welcome the June non-farm payrolls report on Friday morning. In the medium term, the gold market will continue to digest the impact of conflicting inflation data from all over the world.